The bittersweet US jobs data in September and the consequent hope that the Fed will cut rates further in October, encourage the stock markets, starting from Wall Street, which opens on the same note and continues to move higher in the early hours of trading.
European stock markets benefited from this and, having set aside the worries about American tariffs, they finally achieved a rebound, closing one of the reddest weeks of the year in green. Business Square rises by 0,75% to 21,470 points; Frankfurt +0,72%; Paris +0,91%; Madrid + 0,63%.
After the large losses of the last few sessions London recovers 1,15%, while the news of Brexit is enriched by a new paragraph with the news that the British government will ask the EU for an extension if it fails to obtain a new agreement and approve it by 19 October, as established by the Benn Act. This is what the documents presented by the government of Boris Johnson reveal in the context of the case on the agenda of the highest civil court of Scotland. This is a black and white denial by Johnson himself who has repeatedly reaffirmed his willingness to leave the Union at any cost on October 31st.
In this context theeuro it is slightly positive against the dollar at around 1,097 and rises against the pound with the exchange rate at 0,891. Gold tarnishes moderately, trading around 1510 dollars an ounce. Oil recovered, with Brent futures up to 58,42 dollars a barrel (+1,23%).
The focus is on the American central bank to put a stop to the signs of recession, after the recent declining macro data, especially as regards manufacturing in Europe and the USA and at this point the probabilities of a further adjustment in the cost of money go from 40 at 75%. The choices of Jerome Powell, who will speak tonight at 20 pm Italian time, probably providing some clues on his moves at the next meeting (October 30), will also be guided by the report on the work presented today, which however lends itself to multiple uses. In fact, the US economy created 136.000 new jobs in September, less than expected, which were around 145.000. However, the unemployment rate fell to 3,5%, the lowest level since 1969, i.e. for 50 years, a record that makes Donald Trump rejoice. Finally, hourly wages, useful for assessing inflationary pressures, fell by 1 cent after posting a gain of $0,11 the previous month; forecasts were for +0,2%.
In Italy, meanwhile, attention is focused on budget maneuver and on discontent in the majority, while the news comes from Istat that in the second quarter of 2019 the GDP increased by 0,1% both compared to the previous quarter and on an annual basis. Better than the estimate released at the end of August, which gave a steady GDP at the economic level, with no change, and down by 0,1% in trend terms.
In the quarter, general government net borrowing as a ratio of GDP was 1,1%, from 1,3% in 2018. Overall, in the first two quarters of 2019, the deficit-GDP ratio was equal to 4%, down from 4,2% in the corresponding period of the previous year. This is the best half-year figure since 2000, or for 19 years. On the other hand, the tax burden rose to 40,5%, up by 0,3 percentage points compared to the same period of the previous year.
The situation does not affect the debt market much, with the spread between the ten-year Italian and German slightly moved at 141 basis points (+0,66%) and the yield of the BTP at +0,82%, but after having also fallen below 0,8% during the session.
In Piazza Affari, some financial stocks that have stemmed the losses in recent days are under pressure today. In the first place Banco bpm, -5,57%, on which investors collect after speculation about a possible marriage with Ubi -2,61%. Among the worst titles there are also Unipolsai -1,22%; Bper -0,91%; Unipol -1,27%; Mediobanca -0,45%, the latter despite press rumors that indicate Leonardo Del Vecchio's Delfin is ready to rise to 20% of Piazzetta Cuccia.
Bucking Monte dei Paschi, +2,73%, with the news of a negotiation with the European Commission on the sale of a portion of non-performing loans for about two thirds of the total, in view of the search for a buyer maturing at the end of the year. Among the big caps at the bottom of the list Pirelli -2,68% and Recordati -1,29% (the latter penalized by the "underperform" recommendation of Credit Suisse).
Queen of the Ftse Mib is instead stm +3,2%, in the wake of rumors from Asia according to which Apple would have asked suppliers to increase production of the iPhone 11. Good Diasorin + 2,79%.
In recovery Campari +1,83% and utilities: A2a +1,62%; Ivy +1,5%; Terna +1,4%. Made in Italy wing shot with Ferrari +1,79% and Moncler + 1,34%.
