Negative European stock markets, in a volatile session, at the end of which Piazza Affari also sold off, driven by oil stocks and despite the rebound in banking stocks.
Milano loses 0,12%, stopping at 18.906 points; Frankfurt -0,31%; Paris -0,83%; Madrid -0,14%; London -1,25%. Wall Street it is moving in progress after several course changes. US equities opened in the red, then turned higher, with August new home sales unexpectedly up, then back down, then up again. It is not known how it will end, after yesterday's slide, but in September the S&P 500 practically wiped out the 2020 gains. The disappointment for the new weekly requests for unemployment benefits weighs on the American markets, which give the measure of how much recovery is still far away. We also remain pessimistic about the possibility that Congress will approve a new aid plan for families and businesses affected by the crisis, despite the repeated appeal of the Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell. On the European front, today, in its Bulletin, the ECB observes that Covid has inflicted a triple shock on the economy and forecasts a recovery for the euro area of 8,4% in the third quarter, but in any case remaining below of pre-pandemic levels. For the chief economist of the European Central Bank Philip Lane right now “the first priority is the containment of the virus – he writes on Twitter – If there is a prolonged peak of cases, this will damage consumer and investor confidence”. In light of what is happening in Great Britain, France and Spain, it is not known how seasons such as autumn and winter, particularly suitable for cold viruses, will evolve.
The ECB will also keep its eyes open on exchange rates, while the dollar's recovery continues, reaching a two-month high today against a panel of currencies. L'euro it confirms its decline and the cross moves around 1,164. The super dollar scares thegold: the price of spot gold is down to 1859,7 dollars an ounce.
Weakness for the Petroleum, with the November 2020 Brent contract down 0,4% to $41,6 a barrel.
It is precisely the oil stocks that ballast Piazza Affari during the day, right from the start, since "a large order for sale on some oil blue chips - writes Rueters - initially scuttled the list".
Saipem e Tenaris they were also suspended for excess downside, eventually closing down 4,41% and 2,04% respectively. Bad Eni, -1,67%.
On the other hand, the performance of bank stocks was sparkling, after seven declines in a row, with Bpm bank (+5,8%) at the center of the dances and indiscretions that would like it close to entering the orbit of Unicredit (+2,28%), except for repeated denials by the heads of the institutes. It joins the effervescent climate Bper, +5,31%, while the Valtellinese credit +11,61%. The purchases came as Bloomberg reported that Credit Agricole is exploring potential acquisitions in Italy. Among the possible targets there would be Creval, but also Banco Bpm. Secluded Mount Paschi, -0,44%, which in recent days had benefited from rumors of an engagement with Unicredit, solicited by the government. The bank led by Jean Pierre Mustie seems to remain on the sidelines for now, although it is believed that a domino effect in the sector is inevitable after the ops by Understanding (-0,26%) on Ubi and the Spanish mega-aggregation between Caixabank and Bankia.
Credit securities then benefited from the hypothesis, referred to by Sun 24 Hours, that the creation of a large platform to match supply and demand for bank NPLs is being studied in Europe. Topic that will perhaps be one of the items on the agenda of the seminar organized for tomorrow by the EU Commission.
In progress Atlantia, +1,58%, on the day of the extraordinary board meeting on the Autostrade dossier. There are two options available and both are not appreciated by the government, because they reduce Cdp's scope for intervention: sell the entire stake in the capital of Autostrade (equal to 88%) through a competitive process; or "partial and proportional demerger" of Aspi and "conferment of, respectively, 55% and 33% of the share capital in the newly established Autostrade Concessioni e Costruzioni, to be listed on the Stock Exchange with the exit of Atlantia from its capital".
Volatile session also for bonds. In closing it spread between the Italian and German 2,1-year bond it rose by 138%, 0,87 basis points, with the BTP rate slightly up to XNUMX%.
The European news of the day on the macro front was positive: the German Ifo index, which measures business confidence, improved, rising to 93,4 in September from 92,5 in August, in line with forecasts. Finally, S&P Global Ratings raises its estimates of Italy's GDP in 2020: from the previous -9,5% to -8,9%. And in 2021, it will rise from +5,3% to +6,4%. For the Eurozone, the estimate is -7,4% this year and +6,1% next year.
