It's still calm on the markets, but the wait is about to end because tonight Jerome Powell will speak after the monetary policy meeting and lift the veil on the Fed's intentions. Or maybe he won't. In the face of this uncertainty, relating above all to the timing of a tapering, i.e. a progressive return to normality after the monetary stimuli put in place to deal with the Covid emergency, investors remain on the sidelines. To keep the financial (and not only) world in suspense there is also the face-to-face, at Villa La Grange in Geneva, between the Russian president Vladimir Putin and the American president Joe Biden. Among the topics on the table: the return of ambassadors, arms treaties, cyber security, Ukraine and the exchange of prisoners.
In this scenario, the European lists close mixed, but remaining at the top levels of their values: Milano +0,12% (25.767 points); Frankfurt -0,14%; Paris +0,2%; Amsterdam +0,35%; Madrid -0,33%; London + 0,18%.
In New York is cautious about starting Wall Street, which proceeds almost unchanged. The Dow Jones and S&P500 are down very slightly, while the Nasdaq is in just as little progress. The banks suffer, more linked to interest rates, the technological ones are timidly optimistic. The T-Bond market is positive, with the 1,5-year rate below 6,6%. The trend would suggest a still dovish Fed, while the macroeconomic scenario shows that the recovery in the US is there and is strong and that inflation is biting more than expected. Yesterday, on the one hand, there was a record increase, on an annual basis, in producer prices, which grew by 6,2%, against expectations for 1,3%, and on the other, retail sales decreased by 620,2% to $1,1 billion. Today, import prices in May are above estimates (+3%), while new building permits are down by XNUMX%, below forecasts. Furthermore, coronavirus infections collapse thanks to the powerful vaccination campaign. Yet the times are probably not yet ripe for a change of course.
“All eyes are really on tapering – says Art Hogan, chief market strategist of National Securities in New York – my guess is that it will not be today's topic, rather that of the Kansas City summit, Jackson Hole, in August, but you never know." Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will also have the opportunity to speak publicly next week, next Tuesday, when he will testify before the US House and speak about economic recovery and emergency aid for the Covid-19 emergency before the subcommittee on the crisis for the coronavirus. chaired by MP James Clyburn. The statement released by the subcommittee today states that, among the points under discussion, there will also be forecasts on the Fed's bond purchase program, which is currently progressing at a rate of 120 billion dollars a month.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar is showing some signs of nervousness and remains close to its one-month highs. L'euro-dollar it is stable in area 1,21. Oil is confirmed to be in progress, with Brent now close to reaching 75 dollars a barrel (currently 74,75). They regain altitude the metals, although China has decided to release domestic reserves of key industrial metals in an attempt to curb the price increase fueled by a recovery in global economic activity. The state storage institution, writes the wsj, said it intends to release copper, aluminum, zinc and other domestic reserves in batches in the near future to ensure supply and price stability of bulk raw materials.
Finally, focusing on Piazza Affari, we see that the blue chips that make the biggest gains today are in managed savings: General Bank +2,41%; Finecobank +2,28%: Banca Mediolanum +1,68%. Energy consumption drives utilities; Enel +1,65%; Italgas +1,56%, which wakes up one day late after the 2027 plan presented yesterday; Terna +1,1%. Cues on nexi, +1,52%, which, following the announcement of November 15, 2020, signed the Nets merger deed. The new group, reads a note, 'will be the leading PayTech in Europe for distinctive skills, for the scope of the distribution network, for the breadth of the offer and with a market space that expands to become four times bigger than the Italian one'.
The worst headlines of the day are banks: Unicredit loses 2,03%; Bpm bank -1,82%; Understanding -1,47%; Bper -1,39%, with the shareholder Unipol -0,8%. Ps, against the trend, takes a very small step forward, +0,08%, after yesterday evening he said he wanted to explore the possible strengthening of the partnership with Anima Holding (+0,99%)
It's still negative Ferrari, -0,86%, together with Exor -0,82%.
In fashion it is appreciated Tod’s, +6,48%, after reaching new highs since 2008 in the session.
The secondary is tinged with pale red: lo spread between the Italian and German ten-year bond it rises to 98 basis points (+0,91) and the BTP rate stops at +0,73%.
An Istat report released today says that, after the improvement recorded in 2019, absolute poverty has increased in Italy and in 2020, under the pressure of the pandemic, reached the highest level since 2005.
Meanwhile, Minister Daniele Franco observes that the recovery of economic activity and employment is strengthening and will be higher than initial estimates at the end of the year. But “even a 5% growth – he underlines – must be interpreted in the light of the fact that we have lost 9%: it is a rebound, let us keep that in mind”.
