The Zew index relating to economic expectations in Germany fell to 10 points in August from 17,5 in July, clearly below the estimates of economists. The figure only partially extinguishes the upward thrust at the start of the session: at 12, Frankfurt is up almost 0,7% in line with London and +0,5% ahead of Paris. The data on the Italian economy was more positive, where the Zew index in August rose to 11,5 points from 10,3 in July, further growth compared to 10,0 points in June and 4,8 in May. Paradoxically, the best economic situation does not favor Piazza Affari +0,05% in braking at the end of the morning. The sudden worsening of the Italian market can be explained by the tensions on the bond market, in view of the Jackson Hole meeting. The explanation given by Bloomberg is less convincing, ie the delayed blast reaction to Silvio Berlusconi's Sunday interview with Libero in which the centre-right leader espouses the dual currency thesis.
In fact, on the fixed income front, profit-taking on the BTP has taken off: the ten-year yield rises to 2,07% and the spread widens by 7 basis points. The German bund is stable at 0,41%. Analysts have their eyes on the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium (scheduled for August 24-26), organized annually by the Kansas City Fed, which central bankers have often used to send monetary policy messages. Analysts are awaiting the first indications from the Fed and the ECB on the road to normalization or the reduction of the assets of the two central banks.
The dollar is slightly recovering against the euro, the cross drops to 1,176 from 1,181. Brent is trying to rebound after the -2% suffered yesterday, today +1% at 52,22 dollars. Missing Saipem -1,5%. Barclays has cut the rating to Underweight from Equal Weight. Target revised to 3,80 euros from 3,90 euros. Eni unchanged. Tenaris +0,3%.
Fiat Chrysler slows down -0,09% to 11,43 euros after updating the new highs of the last 20 years with a gain of over 3% in the morning. The Chinese group Great Wall has confirmed that it has always been interested in the Italian-American automaker. Exor -0,2%. Goldman Sachs, in a report yesterday, updated the sum of FCA's shares to 32,5 euros per share, not to take into account Chinese interest in the Jeep brand, but only for the quarterly accounts and the increase in the multiple by Maserati. The Trident brand is valued at 5,845 billion euros, Jeep 22,51 and Alfa Romeo 2,100. Despite the rise of the stock market, Goldman Sachs continues to bet on FCA with a buy rating (it is on its Conviction buy list) and a target price of 19,20 euros (22,4 dollars).
The rise of Unicredit is held back by +0,17% from the initial +1,8%. Il Sole24Ore reports an update on Unicredit's governance review process. In detail, it would appear that the company has given the task of searching for a new Chairman and new profiles of directors. The final proposal should be discussed in the autumn with the new BoD appointed in the April 2018 shareholders' meeting. Intesa Sanpaolo -0,48%. Among the insurance companies, Generali falls by 1,24%%. Weak Telecom -1,3%.
DoBank +0,29% should be noted. This morning Citigroup and Kepler announced that they had started hedging the stock with a Neutral rating and a target price of 11 euros. The company led by Andrea Mangoni and chaired by Giovanni Castellaneta operates in a sector that has quickly risen to the top of Italian finance, that of Non-performing loans, i.e. non-performing loans belonging to banks. But unlike shareholder Fortress, which invests directly in NPL portfolios, DoBank is active in portfolio management with a recovery platform.
