Speculation on the securities of the main Italian banks affected by the stocks is unleashed on the Milan Stock Exchange stress test results labeled BCE.
Mps, which had closed on Friday at one euro, set its first price at 0,852 euro and is now trading at 0,8485, with a drop of 15,15%. The stock entered the volatility auction after 32 million shares were traded in minutes, against a daily average of 94 million. For Carige, the drop is 17,83%, to 0,0765 euro (after a start at 0,0762 euro): almost 21 million pieces traded (the daily average is 60 million) before the shares entered the auction of volatility. In the same minutes Banco Popolare gained 4,3%, to 12,85 euro, after some difficulties in pricing at the opening with a theoretical increase of 7,5%.
According to Eurotower, the Sienese Bank has a capital shortfall of 2.111 million euros, while the Ligurian bank has to recover 814 million. UBS cut Monte Paschi's target price from 1,3 to 1 euro, with a neutral recommendation.
“We evaluate all options, also a merger – said the managing director of Mps, Fabrizio Viola, in an interview published this morning in Il Sole 24 Ore -, but to date we are not in negotiations with anyone”. The manager then "categorically ruled out" that the Bank could resort to public aid again. Finally, a hint of controversy: "Our plan agreed with the EU takes time to produce the desired results"; Mps has been under EU care for a year, while for example Commerzbank for six, "yet the same rules were applied to us and them".
As for Carige, yesterday immediately after the rejection by the ECB, the institute announced that it had unanimously approved a plan to be submitted to the approval of the ECB which envisages a capital increase of at least 500 million guaranteed by Mediobanca in addition to other asset disposal transactions.
Finally, the wave of stock market buying up Banco Popolare this can be explained by the better-than-expected result in the stress tests: the institute passed the ECB exams with a wide margin thanks to the capital strengthening measures implemented in the first six months of 2014. Ubs has raised its opinion on Banco Popolare to "buy" from "hold", with targets growing from 14 to 15 euros.
