With the election campaign raging and Moody's which, on Friday evening, changed the outlook on Italian debt from stable to negative, Business Square it closes at the bottom of the euro zone lists, albeit on the rise. The Milanese blue chip index rose by 0,63% to 22.727 points, behind Madrid + 1,3% Paris + 0,8% Amsterdam + 0,71% Frankfurt +0,88%. It's slightly further back London +0,6%. Well Wall Street at the start, reduced by three octaves in progress for the S&P 500 and Nasdaq. Furthermore, the prices of T-Bonds rise and yields fall, a movement that favors the stocks of the tech sector.
Positive markets, despite many reasons for uncertainty
The attitude of investors appears positive, but cautious, due to the many reasons for uncertainty. In the geopolitical sphere, the fever between the USA and China does not subside after Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taiwan, while in Europe the war in Ukraine continues to do damage and the outbreak of Kosovo and Serbia ignites. As far as central banks are concerned, markets are pricing in a 70% chance of a further 75 basis point rate hike at the next government meeting. fed, after the jobs report seen last week far exceeded expectations. Previously the percentage of a move of this consistency was 40%.
This week will be important, in terms of monetary policy, the inflation data out Wednesday.
Finally, yesterday the US Senate approved a bill that provides for spending of 430 billion dollars for fight climate change, extend health coverage, reduce the deficit. The expenditure will be financed by a minimum tax of 15% on corporations and savings on drugs
The morale of European investors rises slightly
In this context, the morale of European investors shows a slight improvement, but not enough to remove the fears of a recession. The Sentix index for the eurozone it grows to -25,2 points from -26,4 in July, but Germany remains pessimistic: -24,4 points, the lowest level since May 2020.
“The economic situation in the eurozone remains difficult – says Sentix director general Manfred Huebner – A recession is still very likely”, due to weak consumer confidence, inflation and energy prices.
Euros up
The euro is not upset and rises today against the dollar, recovering an exchange rate around 1,022.
Among the commodities is looking for a direction the Petroleum, which turns positive: Brent is trading at around 95,3 dollars a barrel (+0,4%).
According to Goldman Sachs the fate of black gold is to increase in the coming months, after losing about 25% since June and despite the risk of shocks such as recession, Beijing's zero-Covi policy and real estate problems in China, release of US strategic reserves and Russian production recovering well above expectations .
Instead i go down gas prices in Amsterdam, -0,67%, 195 euros per megawatt hour, on the eve of the entry into force of the agreement concluded at the end of July by the twenty-seven member countries of the EU to voluntarily reduce the consumption of raw materials.
Piazza Affari towed by Stellantis; the enthusiasm for banking Risk is dampened
The honeymoon continues Bper with the stock exchange. The Modenese bank is also gaining 2,42% today, after the boom following the quarterly report and is one of the best blue chips in Piazza Affari, in contrast with the predominantly weak credit sector. Since the last lows of mid-July, the share of the Emilian institution, which conquered Banca Carige, has recorded a gain of almost 30%.
On the other hand there is Bpm bank, -2,26%. Perhaps the slowdown in banking risk, of which the institute was to be one of the protagonists, weighs heavily. According to CEO Giuseppe Castagna, heard from Corsera, the phase is on hold and will hardly be resolved before the end of the year due to the Italian and international situation.
Queen of the price list is today stellantis, +3,14%, in one day of automotive purchases at European level, but also thanks to the promotion of the rating agencies. After Fitch, Moody's raised its long-term rating to Baa2 from Baa3 and updated its short-term rating to P-2 from P-3, with an outlook to "stable" from "positive".
Well the energy with Tenaris +2,15%, which becomes "buy" from "add" for Intesa Sanpaolo given the "best results in the first half since 2009". Among the utilities, in recovery, it stands out Terna + 1,73%.
They are in red Fineco -1,1% Post -0,92% Mediobanca -0,74% Pirelli -0,72%.
Spreads up
On the other hand, the Italian secondary closed in the red, after Moody's confirmed the country's sovereign debt rating at "Baa3", but lowered the outlook to "negative" from "stable", above all due to the crisis of the Draghi government and the uncertainty created by the early elections of 25 September in such a delicate phase.
Lo spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds for the same term, it grew to 209 basis points (+3,55%), with yields respectively at +2,93% and +0,84%. Altogether contained movements. The Financial Times points out that the ECB is injecting billions of euros into the eurozone's weakest debt markets.
"The central bank is using reinvestments of maturing bonds to calm jitters in countries like Italy."
