The stock market, with its unpredictable nature, has recently provided a true roller coaster ride for two global pharmaceutical giants: Eli Lilly e Novo Nordisk. After a period of sharp declines preceded by an exciting rally, both companies experienced a recovery surprising. Eli Lilly, pushed by results exceptional results of its drug Zepbound, saw its shares take off, closing the week with a jump of 17,68%, of which 5,49% in the last day alone. This positive momentum had a domino effect on Novo Nordisk, which saw its shares close 6,32% higher in Copenhagen.
Although the two giants are currently the main manufacturers and distributors of anti-obesity drugs, new players such as Viking Therapeutics, Roche and Zealand Pharma are entering the market, making the race for dominance in the diet pill industry closer and more heated than ever.
The rise and fall of Novo Nordisk
New Nordic, the Danish giant, had started the year on the right foot, thanks to the success of wegovy e ozempic, its GLP-1 drugs for weight control and diabetes. However, last week it suffered a serious blow: the sales of Wegovy have disappointed analysts. Despite a 53% increase to $1,7 billion, the result remained well below the estimate of almost $2 billion. This prompted Novo to review al fall le Forecasts of profit for the year, causing a crollo significant of actions, which also had negative repercussions on the Indianapolis pharmaceutical giant. The uncertainty raised doubts about the strength of the market for diabetes and obesity drugs, but Eli Lilly allayed those concerns the next day, showing that demand remains strong.
Novo Nordisk also withdrew its application for approval to use Wegovy to treat heart failure in the United States and Europe, marking a step back in its expansion strategy. The situation was further aggravated by problems di supplying, forcing the company to raise the prices of its drugs. These factors combined have raised further concerns among investors about the company's abilities to maintain its dominance in the market.
Eli Lilly's extraordinary recovery
Despite the hard blow suffered by the Danish giant, Eli Lilly reported a breath of optimism the following day. The US company announced exceptional results for Zepbound, its anti-obesity drug, with sales which reached $1,2 billion in the second quarter, overcoming by far Forecasts on Wall Street set at 819 million. The success of Zepbound, combined with solid earnings from Mounjaro, another key diabetes drug, has allowed the group to raise its annual revenue forecast by as much as $3 billion. This momentum drove the actions Lilly jumped 14% on Thursday, marking its biggest daily gain in 51 months and bringing the stock's annual gain to nearly XNUMX%. Furthermore, the encouraging results of the Indianapolis company contributed to a notable recovery for Novo, which saw two consecutive days of increases, recovering most of the losses accumulated over the last month.
The struggle to dominate the obesity market
Although the Danish group came first, it did not expand its reach capacity productive as quickly as the US company. Less than a year after approval, Zepbound's weekly prescription volume is already comparable to what Wegovy achieved with Novo after more than two years, according to JPMorgan data. Forecasts for Zepbound, which could top $27 billion by 2030, put Lilly in a good position to challenge and perhaps surpass Novo Nordisk in the long term. Novo also revised its sales growth estimates upwards, albeit to a more modest extent.
Both companies had problems to satisfy the growing question of their anti-obesity drugs. Lilly solved the difficulties di production and now has all doses of Zepbound and Mounjaro available. In contrast, Novo Nordisk continues to struggle with shortages of Wegovy's lower dose, limiting its ability to satisfy the market.
Currently, Lilly and Novo are among the two largest pharmaceutical companies in the world capitalization market and will both benefit from the expansion of the weight loss drug market. But that doesn't mean there won't be a leader in this race or that it will remain a two-horse race.
New anti-obesity pills threaten Lilly and Novo's empire
The arrival of new players in the anti-obesity market has further complicated things for the two big pharma companies, which now have to deal with increasingly fierce competition. Viking Therapeutics, with its injectable drug in final-stage studies and a promising oral version, has seen a 39% surge in its stock in a single day, and a total gain of 208% this year.
Roche, for its part, has accelerated the launch of its oral weight-loss drug, with its shares rising 10% this year, supported by favorable trial results. While it hasn't matched Viking's leaps, Roche is emerging as a formidable competitor.
Other emerging players include Zealand Pharma, another Danish big pharma, which has seen a remarkable surge of 150% this year, thanks to the success of its experimental drug petrelintide. The American Terns Pharmaceuticals, which is developing an oral weight loss drug with results expected in the second half of the year and Altimmune that is testing another injectable drug, are attracting attention. Pfizer he recently abandoned two projects due to side effects, but continues to seek opportunities in the industry. Furthermore, Amgen presented promising data for its anti-obesity drug maridebart cafraglutide, and AstraZeneca has acquired an experimental drug from China's Eccogene to strengthen its position in the market.
With the company market of the weight loss drugs expected to grow from $14 billion in 2024 and beyond $ 130 billion by 2030According to Goldman Sachs, the competition for dominance is more intense than ever. Novo Nordisk's recent difficulties and Eli Lilly's rapid rise demonstrate that fortunes can change in the blink of an eye. Who will emerge as the true protagonist of this boom? The answer will depend on companies' ability to adapt, innovate and manage growing demand.
