IMF AND SPAIN RELEASE THE BULL. LIGRESTI TOWARDS FAILURE. AND FONSAI FLY
Long live Madame Christine Lagarde's magic wand. The director general of the International Monetary Fund, on the eve of the Washington summit, gave the markets the decision to raise the US economic growth forecasts for 2012 to +2,1% from the previous estimate of +1,8%. As far as global growth is concerned, the Fund now forecasts a growth this year of 3,5%, from the previous forecast of +3,3%. A panacea for the markets, for days conditioned by the cloud of the slowdown in Chinese GDP and by doubts about the "moderate recovery" of the States.
Long live Spanish bullfighting. Yesterday morning the Treasury of Madrid filled up at the auction of government bonds. Italian sovereign debt benefited from this: the 14-year BTP/Bund spread fell by 370 basis points to 23, the Spanish one by 407 basis points to XNUMX.
Piazza Affari took the opportunity to ride the Bull: it was the great protagonist of the day. The FtseMib index of the Italian Stock Exchange rose by 3,6% with conspicuous increases in all sectors and above all in banking stocks. The London Stock Exchange rose by 1,7%, Paris +2,7%, Frankfurt +2,6%, Madrid +2,2%. Madame Lagarde's message also made inroads on Wall Street. The US indices are all on the rise: Standard & Poor's 500 +1,55%, Dow Jones +1,50% and Nasdaq +1,82%.
The increases have affected all sectors to a certain extent: Apple rises +2,2%, after five consecutive sessions of declines. Coca Cola +2,5%, supported by good quarterly results, Wal Mart +1,8%, but also Citigroup +2,2% and Morgan Stanley +2%. Good response also to the quarterly report from Goldman Sachs which also recorded a drop in profits of 23%, in any case far above analysts' expectations: profit per share was 3,92 dollars against a forecast of 3,55. Derivatives and bond subscription made it possible to offset the reduction in commissions.
The Citigroup assembly rejected the board's proposal on the salary of CEO Vikram Pandit: 15 million dollars was considered an "excessive" bonus. Asian price lists are also on the rise. The Tokyo Stock Exchange is about to close with a growth of 1,92%. Hong Kong is also effervescent +1,20%. The fall in house prices in China (-9% in Shenzhen last month) multiplies expectations for an easing of Beijing's monetary tightening.
After the agreement between Unipol and Premafin on the exchange rates for the merger, the specter of bankruptcy and bankruptcy appears on the Ligresti group front. The Milan Public Prosecutor's Office has filed for the bankruptcy of Imco and Sinergia, the two financial companies of Ligresti which control 20% of Premafin. A decision that came after the impossibility was verified, given the determined opposition of General Electric Interbanca (exposed for 31 million) to approve a recovery plan pursuant to article 67 of the bankruptcy law, which does not envisage the intervention of the General Court, unlike Article 182 bis. The situation of the companies is "very worrying" and in the absence of an arrangement with creditors the bankruptcy of the companies seems inevitable. Banks and representatives of Imco and Sinergia (including the president of Imco, Claudio Calabi) will already meet this morning to seek a solution in extremis.
The consequences were not long in coming: Unipol soared to close with a 23% gain, Fondiaria-Leaves jumped 38%, Milano Insurance +17%. In reverse, Premafin it fell by 5,8%. The reasons? On the market, there are those who have bet that this is news that can speed up the integration, others have bet that the operation could be canceled by increasing the prices of Sator and Palladio. The common conclusion was: buy, something will happen anyway.
Meanwhile Unipol has "given a mandate to its lawyers to undertake, in the competent judicial and administrative offices, the most appropriate actions for the protection of its own interests and those of its shareholders". This can be read in a note from the insurance company which refers to the "various statements" reported yesterday by Palladio and Arepo in the note in which they criticized the rescue of Fonsai by the Bologna group.
Great celebration for European banks: the Stoxx index of the sector has achieved a rise of 4%. And the Italian institutes, among the most sacrificed, led the race: PopMilan gained 8,7%, MontePaschi + 5,6% PopEmilia +10% and Banco Popular +9,3%. The chain of increases has also infected the Bigs: Unicredit + 7,1 % Understanding +8%, Ubi + 6,5% Mediobanca even +8,9%. Positive too Generali + 3,8%. Mediolanum +5,5% and Mediaset +5,1% today in the meeting. All positive industrial stocks: Fiat it gained 3,6% despite disappointing data on car sales in Europe in March. The Lingotto fell to an all-time low of 5,4%.
Indiscretions from the German press now suggest that the times for the acquisition by Audi di Ducati are now close: according to the German agency Dpa, the sale of Ducati will be authorized by the Supervisory Boards of Audi and its holding company Volkswagen already tomorrow afternoon. Value of the deal 860 million euros.
Sharp rises for oil: Eni + 2,6%. Saipem +2%. And for utilities, da Enel +2,9% to Telecom Italy +2,3% ed Atlantia + 2,9%. Impregile it rose by 6%: the time for the confrontation between Salini and the Gavio group is approaching.
