The American economy is booming, as revealed by the surprising growth of GDP in the first quarter (+3,2%) and Donald Trump celebrates "we are number one in the world" he says. Yet the markets remain warm and the dollar retreats, on the day that oil plummets backwards. Wall Street travels cautiously and the European lists close in no particular order, not far from parity: Frankfurt +0,27%, Paris +0,21%, Madrid +0,05%, London -0,08%.
Thanks to the semi-festive climate of the period, Piazza Affari also closes another interim session, rising by 0,08%, with energy in decline, Telecom recovering (+2,25%) and banks moderately positive, supported by a sharply declining spread. The spread between 10-year BTPs and Bunds drops to 260.40 basis points (-3,77%) and the yield of the Italian benchmark falls to 2,59%. The verdict that Standard and Poor's will issue this evening on the Italian debt is calmly awaited, in the belief that a rejection will not come which would be really heavy given the current rating, 'BBB', two steps above the 'non investment grade' level, with an outlook negative. The short-term auction in the morning went well and 6 billion euros of the October 2019 Bot were assigned at a weighted average rate of -0,028%, up 34 thousandths compared to the placement at the end of March. Confindustria's concerns about the economy of the Belpaese are therefore not reflected in the attitude of investors. However, the study center warns: in the first months of 2019, the Italian GDP stopped decreasing, but the scenario for the second quarter remains fragile and uncertain. The government, while aware of the difficult economic situation, does not appear to indicate in the Def how it intends to proceed, thus increasing uncertainty rather than restoring confidence.
Of a completely different tenor is the climate in the USA. GDP for the first quarter beat all estimates, even if the most attentive observers were not dazzled by so much light. According to the Market Strategy Office – MPS Capital Services in fact “about 2/3 of the growth is attributable to the increase in government spending, inventories and net exports. These last two items are particularly volatile and could have negative repercussions on the interpretation of the coming quarters. Consumption, on the other hand, contributed to growth by just under 1%, the worst change since last year”. Immediately after the publication of the data, there was a significant appreciation of the dollar and sales on Treasuries, then operators read the data more clearly, reversing the movement both on the dollar and on bonds.
THEeuro-dollar it is currently in favor of the single currency, with the exchange rate returning to the 1,16 area.
THEgold takes courage and rises by 0,8% to 1287,75 dollars an ounce.
Instead, the Petroleum, in the expectation of an increase in production by OPEC to compensate for the contraction of exports from Iran. Trump also contributes to the correction, stating: “Gasoline prices are going down. I called OPEC and said: 'You have to bring them down. You have to bring them down.' And the prices have come down."
Brent loses 3,34%, 71,87 dollars a barrel; wti -3,62%, 62,85 dollars a barrel.
At the bottom of the Ftse Mib today there are just two oil stocks, Saipem -3,59% and Tenaris -3,21; more contained the damages for Eni, -1,06%. There Juventus reverses course again (-2,1%), while stm, -2,02%, pays the price for a sector penalized by the crash of Intel (-10%) in New York due to a cut full-year guidance compared to that provided to the market three months ago.
Purchases reward Recordati +1,89%; Amplifon +2,39%; Finecobank +1,95%. Banks shy, but positive starting from Bper + 0,81%.
Out of the main list nexi leaves 3,55% in the field, while it is learned that the sovereign wealth fund of Singapore, Gic Pte Ltd, has reduced its stake in the company that debuted on the stock exchange on 3 April to below 16%. According to Consob communications on relevant holdings, Gic dropped to 2,867% on 18 April from the initial 3,19%. The fund had purchased a package of 20 million shares in an IPO at 9 euros per share, a price never marked by the stock in the negotiation phase.
