No Christmas present under the tree for the financial markets, which are back in the red today, after the truce of the last two days. The European squares closed down, leaving behind most of yesterday's gains, driven by the negative performance of Wall Street (Nasdaq -2,6%), amidst profit-taking, analysts cutting estimates on mega caps and investors grappling with macroeconomic data that suggest a still strict Fed. In particular, third quarter GDP was revised upwards in the final reading, while the super-index of the economy and core inflation in November disappoint.
Europe overwhelmed by the discontent of Wall Street
Business Square loses 1,24% and rewinds the tape up to 23.813 basis points, at the end of a session that seems to be the negative version of the previous one: almost all the blue chips are making losses, with the exception of Saipem +0,69% and Buzzi Unicem +0,14%. To find consolation you have to get out of the Ftse Mib, where they collect robust increases Ps (+ 3,27%), Juventus (+ 3,38%) and Maire Tecnimont (+0,84%).
The final picture is similar in the rest of Europe, with the auto sector appearing to be particularly affected: Frankfurt -1,32% Amsterdam -1,29% Paris -0,95%. Damage is more contained a Madrid -0,38% and London -0,38%.
On the foreign exchange market the euro trades just under 1,06 against the dollar. The Petroleum loses grit in the American morning. Brent is flat at $82,20 a barrel, as is WTI, at $78,3 a barrel.
It goes further and further down gas price which, between climate leniency and price cap, is approaching 90 euro Mwh.
A macro picture that portends a hawkish Fed
US macroeconomic data changed the fickle mood of investors on this pre-holiday day when trades appeared to be thinner, which, according to many observers, authorize the forecast of a Fed persevering in its restrictive policy.
In particular the super index of the US economy (LEI), compiled by the private research group Conference Board, fell in November for the ninth consecutive month: -1% to 113,5 points, with expectations for a drop of 0,5%, after -0,9% in October ( revised from the initial -0,8%).
Il PCE data on inflation rose in the third quarter of 2022 by 4,3%, according to the final reading of US GDP, confirming the data in the second reading, but the 'core' data, the one excluding energy and food product prices, rose by 4,7%; expectations were for a confirmation of 4,6%.
The American economy also grew by 3,2% in the third quarter, above analysts' expectations, up from the previous survey at the end of November (+2,9%), proof of an acceleration of the American economy after the first six months of contraction. In the first quarter of the year the GDP contracted by 1,6%, while in the second it recorded a drop of 0,6%.
On the other hand, work is holding up and last week the new unemployment claims were lower than expected (220 against 216).
Spreads down, rates up
Stars and Stripes macro news doesn't particularly impact on T Bond, who see the XNUMX-year rate even down slightly.
The climate remains moderately negative in Europe. The spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds with the same duration, it falls by 210 basis points (-1,45%), but rates are growing. The Italian benchmark is indicated at +4,46% (from +4,42% on the previous day), the German one +2,36% (from 2,29%).
Piazza Affari in red with the automotive
The automotive sector is the hardest hit in Piazza Affari, as in Europe. Iveco loses 4,52%, stellantis -3,07% Ferrari -1,18%.
Volkswagen records a drop of 4,37% in Frankfurt. The industry giant plans to cut the number of shifts at its main factory in the German city of Wolfsburg in January. According to press reports, the reasons for the shutdowns include the Covid-19 pandemic and the war in Ukraine, which has disrupted supply chains.
The semiconductor sector goes down to the US and finds stm down 3,59% in Milan.
They are among the worst of the day and recently effervescent stocks such as Amplifon -2,34%; nexi -1,99%; Interpump -2,22% A2a -1,68%.
Among the banks, weak, the worst is Mediobanca, -1,23%. Out of the main basket Ps however, it returns slightly above 2 euro, the price of the cyclical capital increase.
The least bad sector is oil. Among the mid caps Maire Tecnimont it is confirmed in cash after the news of new contracts yesterday (for 1,3 billion dollars) and, today, for another 280 million.
Lose 1% Enel. The company, through its subsidiary Enel Grids, completed the sale of 50% of its subsidiary Gridspertise to the international private equity fund CVC Capital Partners Fund VIII, for approximately 300 million euros. A figure that corresponds to an enterprise value of 625 million euros (referring to 100%).
Well there Juventus, which reached its highest since mid-November during the session. The hypothesis of a takeover bid by Exor (for now denied) and successful delisting makes the title attractive. Furthermore, next Tuesday there will be the shareholders' meeting to approve the budget, with attention remaining focused on the legal proceedings involving the Juventus club.Rimbalzino di Avio (+0,84%) after yesterday's collapse.
