Session with little movement, but full of news for Piazza Affari, which closes on last Friday's levels, to 25.170 points, the last appointment of the month of May. The exchanges were enlivened by the yes by a large majority of the Atlantia shareholders' meeting to the sale of Aspi to Cdp and Fondi and three takeover bids in progress, starting with that of Generali on Cattolica. The Milan stock market was hampered by the subdued performance of the other European stock exchanges, lacking, among other things, indications from London and Wall Street, both closed for holidays. The declines are not such as to affect the monthly performance, which in any case seals a quarter in progress globally, with the Mesci index marking +1,4%. Frankfurt loses 0,64%, in line with Paris -0,57%. On the same length Amsterdam and Madrid.
The indications from Asia were mixed, where Tokyo fell by 0,99% due to the extended state of emergency for the pandemic. Concerns about Covid are also increasing in Great Britain, with the Indian variant appearing to mock the single-dose vaccinated, raising the risk of a third wave. And there are those who ask for the postponement of the stop to all the restrictions scheduled for June 21st.
In Piazza Affari, however, today many ideas were found to distract themselves from Covid 19, also thanks to the positive prospects economic factors highlighted by the governor Ignazio Visco and by the OECD. For the number one of Bank of Italy, after the darkest year for the economy since the post-war period, i.e. 2020, a leap in GDP of more than 4% is to be expected this year. Even the OECD raises its estimates, thanks to the effective vaccination campaign underway in the country. In the 'Economic Outlook' report released this morning, the Paris-based organization assumes that GDP will sign +4,5% this year, from +4,1% seen in March, and +4,4% from +4% in 2022. As regards public accounts, the deficit/GDP ratio is forecast at 11,4% in 2021, to then drop to 6,4% in 2022. Debt is assumed to be 159,6% of GDP this year and 157,2% in 2022.
According to what Istat reveals inflation rises in Italy in May, for the fifth consecutive month: +1,3% (from +1,1% in April), to levels not seen since November 2018. Energy goods still weigh heavily, while the prices of the so-called "shopping cart ” further widen, albeit only slightly, their decline (from -0,7% to -0,8%), confirming trends not seen since August 1997.
The secondary stable: the spread between ten-year BTPs and Bunds of the same duration closed at 104 basis points, with a rate of the Italian bond of +0,86%. At the European level they are slightly ECB purchases under the Pepp program are down: 20,03 billion euros in the last week (against 21,67 billion in the previous one), for a total of 1094,80 billion. As regards the quantitative easing programme, net purchases of government bonds were negative by 3,39 billion to 2.406,771 billion (from +5,89) while purchases of corporate bonds recorded a balance of -0,068 billions to billions to 276,469 billion (+1,5). Lastly, in the period the purchases of covered bonds decreased by 1,28 billion (from -0,332) to 290,02 billion while those of ABS increased by 0,0061 billion (from +0,27) to 28,539 billion.
Returning to the stock market: queen of the Ftse Mib is Atlantia (+2,84%) which, almost three years after the tragedy of the Morandi Bridge, seems to have definitively taken the path of selling Autostrade to Cdp-Blackstone-Macquarie. Approximately 87% of the shareholders present at the meeting are in favor of this hypothesis, for a purely advisory opinion but which will weigh on the company's choices. A board meeting should also have taken place during the day to fix the stages of this transfer: another board meeting between 10 and 11 June to give the green light to the binding agreements with CDP-Fondi and then the signing of the agreements themselves ( the so-called signing) by the end of June.
Among the most relevant news of the day is theTotal takeover bid by Generali (-0,18%) on Cattolica (+15,11%), at 6,75 euro per share. Il Leone already holds 24% of the Veronese company's capital. If the offer goes through Cattolica will be delisted. The CEO's move also received the approval of two cumbersome partners such as Caltagirone and Del Vecchio, while Mediobanca seems to be among the advisors between Trieste.
Another total takeover bid with the objective of delisting concerns Retelit (+14,7%) by Marbles at the price of 2,85 euros per share. The operation is subject to the achievement of a minimum threshold equal to 66,67% of the capital and to the obtaining of the go-ahead from the Council of Ministers in terms of golden power. A leading Italian broker notes that the stock has a free float of approximately 40% and it is currently difficult to estimate the chances that the offer will reach the minimum acceptance threshold.
Also noteworthy is the rise of Carraro, + 1,61%, which has approached the new takeover bid price revised today to 2,55 euros compared to the previous one of 2,40 euros by Fly Srl, of the Carraro family. The offer closes on June 4th.
Among the titles in turmoil Popular of Sondrio, after the sentence of the Council of State which confirmed the legitimacy of the reform law of the Popolari and paved the way for the transformation of the institute into a joint stock company by the end of the year. Consob communications confirm that Unipol Group has taken over 6,911% of Banca Popolare di Sondrio. The share is held by UnipolSai Assicurazioni with "indirect ownership" title.
On the Ftse Mib among the biggest increases of the day: Banca Mediolanum +2,19%; Interpump +1,56%; Banca Generali +1,18%. Among the major decreases: Enel -1,07%; Leonardo -0,84%; Nexi -0,75%; Exor -0,74%. On the foreign exchange market, the euro rose against the dollar, moving above 1,22. Raw materials are improving: Brent is close to 70 dollars, trading up by 1% at 69,41 dollars a barrel.
