Day of celebration, indeed of real revelry for the European banks, especially the Italian ones. The sector index signals an increase of just under 3% fueled, among other things, by the boom in Unicredit +5,62% and by Bpm bank +4,89%. Also at the top of the index Banca Mediolanum +4,3% and Mediobanca +4,1%. But the phenomenon affects all European banks, compactly on the rise. From the beginning of 2020 there are only three titles in earnings: Deutsche Bank +24% and FinecoBank +16% and Where's Banca + 2%.
Among the reasons for the rally are the new guidelines on mergers between banks dictated by the ECB. The European Supervisory Authority has published a guide on the authority's approach to consolidating the European banking system. This guide (in consultation until 1 October 2020) aims to increase transparency towards the market, helping interested parties to understand the expectations of the regulator. In terms of capital requirements, the regulator has clarified that the starting point of the new reality will be the weighted average of the requirements of the individual banks before the operation.
For Unicredit, in particular, the drive comes from transfer for a total of 335 million euro of nominal value of Npl loans, almost all belonging to the consumer sector. According to Berenberg analysts, who confirm the buy rating on the institution led by Jean Pierre Mustier, Unicredit has already discounted strong devaluations on its Npl portfolio in the pre-Covid phase.
For Banco Bpm, despite the denials, it is betting on a possible marriage with Mps (+1%) who signed the preliminary contract of sale to Ardian of a real estate portfolio, offered as part of the competitive procedure launched in July 2019. For most of the properties, the completion of the transaction is expected by 31 December of this year, with a positive effect on the Cet1 ratio of around 13 bps compared to the March value.
The rise is also favored by the decline in the spread, which dropped to 164 points after the placement of the medium and long-term securities of France and Spain. He also plays the hope of a favorable figure on the US employment front. But the market is positioning itself in anticipation of the debut of Btp Futura which will make its debut on Monday amidst premises that appear positive.
