The governor of the Bank of Japan chose an emblematic date, namely the anniversary of the attack of the imperial fleet on Pearl Harbor (7 December 1941) to announce the next turning point in Japan's monetary policy: in Parliament, Kazuo Ueda implied that the Central Bank, perhaps already at the meeting on 19-20 December, could abandon the sub-zero interest rate policy. The markets reacted immediately: tonight the yen reached its highest level since July against the dollar, and then stabilized while awaiting new signals. Tokyo's Nikkei fell -1,7% at the end of the session, with a weekly decline of around 3,5%.
Markets in tension waiting for US jobs
However, the markets are already focused on the other bomb news destined to characterize the performance of the markets between now and the end of the year: the data onUS occupation which should confirm the slowdown of the locomotive, justifying the wait for a first rate cut. The Labor Department report is expected to show that nonfarm payrolls increased by 180.000 jobs last month after an increase of 150.000 in October.
Milan slows down but still has a record
While waiting for these news, European stock markets opened on the rise. EuroStoxx50 Futures +0,3%. The Ftse Eb is in swing and remains at parity: – 0,06% to 30.104.
Yesterday the Ftse Mib index in Milan lost 0,7% but is about to complete the second week of growth, up new highs since 2008. If confirmed, the full breakout of the 30 area will pave the way for increases in the short term at least up to 34 points. The +27% accumulated so far makes the 2023 the best year of the last four.
Investors are now convinced that the peak rates are behind us and they are gearing up to understand when and how much the central banks will cut in the near future, perhaps with excessive optimism.
Industrial production begins to contract again in October: -0,2% after +0,1% (revised) in September, compared to a consensus that estimated a decline of -0,3%.
Record week for BTPs
Meanwhile, the bond market is orienting itself to the new scenario. 4,15-year US Treasury yield at 4,60%, 2,19-year Treasury at XNUMX%, XNUMX-year German Bund at XNUMX%, lowest since May. Ten-year BTP at 3,92%, lowest since February. Spread stable at 173. For our BTP the second positive week is about to be completed, provisional balance +0,8%, from +2,2% in the previous one.
It matters little for now negotiations on the Stability Pact stall. The hope is that a compromise will be reached soon.
The EU economy is still slowing down
The drop in yields is also justified by the weak data that emerged yesterday. There German industrial production it unexpectedly fell in October by 0,4% compared to the previous month. Analysts had expected an increase of 0,2%. The European statistics agency Eurostat confirmed its estimate that GDP in the eurozone fell by 0,1% in the third quarter compared to the previous three months.
Alphabet and AMD awaken artificial intelligence
THEArtificial intelligence makes Wall Street run again. Alphabet (+5,5%) and AMD (+10%) took off when they announced their next strategies on this front.
Alphabet launched Gemini designed "from its foundations to be multimodal and optimized for three different sizes: Ultra, Pro and Nano" explained Sundar Pichai, CEO of Google and Alphabet. The new IT structure can understand and produce textual content, but also images, video and audio, as well as develop computer code itself. .
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), instead announced the arrival of a new line of products specifically designed to improve the performance of applications based on artificial intelligence. Lenovo, Acer, Asus, Dell, HP and other PC makers are expected to begin shipping machines containing the new family of chips starting in the first quarter of next year.
Nasdaq +1,4% and S&P500 +0,80% advance.
Oil still weak. Oil is recovering slightly from the lows of the last five months at 75,38 dollars, but is heading towards bad seventh week below, -4,5% the provisional balance. Concerns of a global supply surplus and weak Chinese demand weighed on, even as prices recovered after Saudi Arabia and Russia called on more OPEC+ members to join in production cuts.
Ft goes on the attack on Bitcoin
Bitcoin at $43.450 settling a short distance from the highs since April 2022. The Financial Times took advantage of the latest rally to take stock of the situation. The judgment that emerged is merciless. According to English experts, Bitcoin has no intrinsic value, nor an underlying. It is not even comparable to gold because the precious metal has been a store of value for millennia and has often offered protection in turbulence. The same cannot be said of Bitcoin. Its main prerogative is inconsistency. What cryptocurrency ultimately offers is a chance to speculate on market sentiment and itself.
Prysmian and Petrobras agreement. Stellantis: battery deal
- In an Italian stock market emptied for the long weekend of the Immaculate Conception, what is possible holds sway placement of a stake in Poste Italiane in the hands of the Treasury (29,4%) relaunched by the sole 24 hours.
- Citi raises its rating nexi to Buy, from Neutral, target price at 8,60 euros.
- Prysmian has signed a contract with Petrobras worth one hundred million euros for the supply of 170 km of so-called electro-hydraulic umbilical cables.
- Saipem said it has completed the exit from Russia's Arctic-2 LNG project, targeted by U.S. sanctions last month, and that the backlog for contracts related to the project is reduced to zero.
- Snam would be in the running for Edison's gas storage activities.
- stellantis has signed a binding agreement with Ample for a partnership on electric vehicle battery charging technology that allows you to have a fully charged battery in less than five minutes.
