Jerome Powell He says it will be appropriate “to cut at some point this year” but cutting rates too early or too quickly “could result in reversing the progress made.” That is, barring any surprises, the cost of money is about to go downhill: perhaps as early as June. There ECBFor now, just watch. But operators expect that Christine Lagarde today gives indications on the excessive liquidity circulating on the markets. Hence a certain caution at the beginning. Nobody expects the start of the cycle of rate cuts.
The uncertainty is also reflected in other markets. THE Asian lists, after a positive opening they took the path of fall even if the trade data arriving from China (but also from other markets, starting from South Korea) are much better than expected. Chinese exports grew in the first two months of 2024 to a record $125 billion trade surplus. Tonight, on the sidelines of the work of the National People's Congress, a series of senior officials defended the plan to grow the economy by around +5% this year and hinted at a potential intervention on liquidity. Index CSI300 of the Shanghai and Shenzhen price lists -0,5%. Hang Seng of Hong Kong -0,9%.
This morning in Asia Pacific. Nikkei of Tokyo -0,9%, in the early stages it had set a new historical record. There is a new stock market record Taipei, the fourth consecutive, the index Taiex rises by 1%. On equality South Korea e India.
Weak Europe, Wall Street futures down 0,2%
But we start again from levels of absolute excellence: The Eurostoxx 50 index yesterday reached its highest level since 2000. The Eurostoxx 600 index reached a new record level. IERI (Yesterday), Our Ftse Eb (+0,66%) refreshed 15-year highs for the fourth time in five sessions. Today it is trading below parity, in line with the main European price lists. Supporting the Milanese list are Nexi and Saipem, while Tim's new plan the market is not enthusiastic, and the stock loses more than 5% on the Piazza Affari. Pirelli is also in red, after i accounts 2023 and the update of the guidance, and the quarterly effect also penalizes Salvatore Ferragamo and luxury.
No signs of slowing down before the ECB.
Wall Street it closed slightly higher, after two declines in a row. Among the magnificent seven, the gap between the first and the last has further increased. Nvidia it finished up +3%, on a new record, gaining +79% since the beginning of the year. Tesla it lost -2,3%, widening the loss since the beginning of the year to -29%.
La New York bank corporation collapsed in recent days due to a deep liquidity crisis, received a $1 billion seed from a group of foreign investors led by former Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin. The stock closed up 7%, after falling 45%. The bank will have new ownership and a new CEO: Joseph Otting, former comptroller of the currency and head of OneWest Bank.
Bonds recovering, gold rallying
Regarding bonds, the recovery continued bond market.
In the Eurozone: German 2,32-year Bund flat at 3,63%. Ten-year BTP at 3,70% from 132%. The BTP's momentum allowed the spread to close to 100 basis points, a new two-year low. The move appears to be heading straight for 2021 basis points, the September XNUMX low.
The yield on the 4,11-year US Treasury fell to 4,15% from XNUMX%.
Euro dollar at 1,0885 before Jerome Powell's hearing and the ECB meeting.
Gold at $2.161. Since the beginning of the year +4,5%. Buying mainly supported by comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell that the central bank will cut interest rates in 2024.
In Piazza Affari Nexi and Saipem did well, Tim and Pirelli down
Moncler Bernstein cuts to Market Perform.
Pirelli (-2,8%). BNP Paribas cuts to Neutral. The company is studying possible M&A especially in the materials sector, said AA Andrea Casaluci. Meanwhile, an analysis initiated by internal audit and managers is underway to assess whether the company can still be considered under the control of the Chinese Sinochem, after Palazzo Chigi's appeal to the Golden Power. The company expects cumulative revenue growth to be unlikely to exceed 5% next year amid rising geopolitical tensions, slowing economic growth and weak demand.
Saipem (+1,5%) Citi raises the target price to 3,10 euros.
A2A. Equita cuts to Hold.
Tim (-5,9%). The Board of Directors gave the green light to the list of the outgoing board for the renewal of the board, with Peter Labriola proposed for a second term at the helm of the group e Alberta Figari recommended for the role of president. The former monopolist expects organic after-lease EBITDA to grow by an average of 8% per year over the next three years thanks to a new, leaner structure following the planned sale of the national fixed network. On the Netco operation, writes Il Sole, Brussels sent KKR a very substantial questionnaire last week, requesting detailed information.
Generali is evaluating several potential acquisitions, in line with its growth plans in the insurance business. The Bloomberg agency writes this, adding that the Trieste-based company would only be interested in 'friendly' deals and would have a list of over half a dozen companies, including Aviva Plc and Uniqa.
nexi (+2%) expects “mid-to-high” single digit EBITDA growth in its guidance for the current year. The company announced a share buyback program lasting 18 months up to a maximum of 500 million. Nexi closed 2023 with a loss of 1,006 billion due to a non-cash technical impairment of goodwill and intangible assets, for 1,256 billion. The normalized profit pertaining to the group was instead equal to 711,8 million euros (+4,9%). Among other balance sheet data, revenues rose by 7% to 3,361 billion euros, EBITDA grew by 10% to 1,751 billion, cash generation was 601 million euros, while investments amounted to 496 million euros, against 520 million in 2022. The net financial position fell to 5,262 billion.
Unicredit moved the board of directors to the first quarter accounts to May 6th from April 29th.
Ferragamo it closed 2023 with an EBIT almost halved to 72 million euros - above analysts' expectations - due to the increase in investments, mainly in marketing and communications. It will propose a dividend of 0,10 euros per share from 0,28 euros a year earlier, against a net profit down 60% to 26 million. In January sales fell but in February they were in line with the previous year, CEO Marco Gobbetti said.
Juventus. The option rights for the capital increase of up to 200 million euros can be exercised from 11 to 27 March, the club says, communicating Consob's green light for the publication of the information prospectus on the capital increase. Today the Board of Directors sets the terms of the operation.
Oil falling, Bitcoin runs
Petroleum slightly down from +1,1% yesterday. China, the world's top crude oil importer reported a 5,1% increase in imports in the first two months of 2024 from a year earlier to around 10,74 million barrels per day (bpd), as refineries ramped up crude oil purchases to meet fuel sales during the long Lunar New Year holiday. The European Union is moving towards a phase-out of fossil fuels, as part of the push to ease the change
Bitcoin to 65.900 dollars, +4%, after yesterday's historic highs of 69.191 dollars.
