Il decline in rates sooner or later it will come. But it is by no means certain that the X hour will start already in March as the markets have anticipated. Indeed, the Fed minutes published last night offer no indication whatsoever on the matter. Of course, the Fed bankers are quite convinced that the main phase of the rise in the cost of money is over, but they don't feel like completely ruling out some rearguard adjustment, as they warned yesterday during an interview with CNBC, Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin. A final upward adjustment cannot be ruled out, he warned, especially if the economic cycle shows no signs of slowing down and the job market remains tight. Macroeconomic data released yesterday showed that the services sector is accelerating, while job vacancies remained more or less at the same level as last month, around 8,8 million.
Beijing bonds at their lowest since 2020
In short, the effects of the leap year are already being felt. After the earthquakes, it is time for the attacks which are ruining the prospects of a truce in the Middle East. What complicates the picture is there China despite Beijing's efforts to restart the growth engine. The Chinese ten-year bond è down to a yield of 2,54%, a level not seen since March 2020. The drop of almost a quarter of a percentage point from this autumn's levels is attributable to the launch of liquidity support measures by the central bank and to the reduction in rates made by the main banks. Global investors increased their holdings of Chinese bonds by 251 billion yuan ($35 billion) in November, a near-record amount.
The index CSi 300 falls by 1,4%. In red too Tokyo: -0,5% upon recovery after the holidays. The index MSCI Asia-Pacific it is the third consecutive session with a minus sign, but the Indian stock market opened higher, index BSE Sensex + 0,6%.
The general uncertainty is transmitted to the European openings marked by a contrasting climate. But after the declines of yesterday, European stock exchanges they experience the rebound and travel upwards. Pink shirt for Business Square, driven by Leonardo and Generali.
In reality, even the first doubts of the bulls are making their way: someone, using statistics, points out that when the January performance is negative, the return for the year is just over 2%, only in 58% of cases is it positive .
Wall Street in red
Wall Street closed lower yesterday. Nasdaq -1,2% S & P500 -0,8%. Dow Jones -0,8%.
But the four consecutive sessions of decline in the Nasdaq are for the moment a small episode of the ups and downs of the stock market, the underlying tone remains positive, in fact, Goldman Sachs strategists have an S&P500 target of 5.100 for the end of the year points, approximately 8,5% above yesterday's closing prices
Waiting is in the spotlight in Italy press conference by Giorgia Meloni.
Ten-year BTP at 3,70% yield, not far from the lows since August 2022. Ten-year Bund at 2,03%. Ten-year BTP at 3,70% yield, not far from the minimums since August 2022. German inflation is released at 14pm, the consensus expects a harmonized EU figure of +0,3% month on month, from -0,7% of November.
Oil flies, Bitcoin stops
Il Petroleum it is back up, after four sessions of decline: Brent returns to 78,5 dollars. The death toll from the attack in Iran is dismaying and the possibility of a shutdown of the Libyan giant Sharara field is looming.
Bitcoin at 43.100 dollars, it fell yesterday from the highs of almost two years. The future of cryptocurrencies revolves around the SCE's green light for the listing of spot ETFs on Wall Street.
Titles under the lens: Generali, Leonardo
Generali. Morgan Stanley raises the rating to Equal Weight, target price at 21 euros.
Tenaris. Jefferies cuts to Hold.
Leonardo. Bernstein raises to Outperform, the target price rises by 25% to 19,5 euros. CEO Roberto Cingolani returns to talk about the need to have continental defense champions in Europe.
stellantis closes the fourth quarter with a 1% decline in car deliveries in the United States, the reference market rose by 8%. The group closed 2023 with a 45,5% share of commercial vehicles in Italy and volumes of over 88.600 units sold (+21% on 2022). Fiat Professional was the brand that achieved the best performance with a share of 26,1%. The market share for electric commercial vehicles was 47,5%.
