Central banks are not holding out great hopes, but the markets are moving towards a rate cut with ever greater conviction. It goes in this direction the excellent debut of Btp Value with collections exceeding 6 billion, but also the trend of the Eurozone curve which includes a 97% probability of a first cut in June and another three by December. The “optimal time” for the first rate cut could be the end of the first half of the year if inflation continues to decelerate and wage data is favorable, said Yannis Stournaras, president of the Greek central bank and ECB member.
In China the bull relies on ETFs
It is not the only sign of the turmoil of the financial markets, looking for new themes beyond the race of Artificial Intelligence. The CSI 300 index of the stock exchanges of Shanghai and Shenzhen earns 0,5%. Those close to the government, the so-called National Team, could also be buying today, especially ETFs on indices. According to UBS calculations, the members of what is defined in the press as the Chinese national team have rounded up since the beginning of the year 410 billion yuan, 57 billion dollars. Analyst Lei Meng writes in the note that subject intervention "remains well below historical levels, with the potential to increase further in extreme conditions." In the third quarter of 2015, purchases by entities close to Beijing had reached 1.240 trillion yuan, equivalent to about 7,7% of the total free float of A shares nine years ago.
Nikkei on equality after the publication of data on inflation in Japan: Consumer prices rose +2,2% in January, more than expected, from +2,6% in December. The figure adjusted for volatile components was also above expectations. On the secondary bond market, Japan's two-year government bond reaches a rate of return not seen since 2011: 0,161%. Dollar cross yen at 150,5 from 150,7 at the close.
The markets seem to want to start an adjustment phase after the long run, also useful for unloading some short-term excess.
Bitcoin on the run: better than gold
In Asia, but not only, the Bitcoin at the highest since the end of 2021 at $55.500. Also in this case the main suspects are ETFs hunting for good deals.
According to analysts' forecasts Bloomberg Intelligence, BTC ETFs could surpass those on gold in terms of assets managed already within the next two years. The Bitcoin ETF, Despite being just six weeks old, they have raised over $8 billion more than similar gold ETFs, already have around 40% of assets, and could surpass them in size in less than two years.
Milan +7,5% in 2024, Lagarde "sees recovery"
Eurostoxx 50 and FtseMib of Milan closed around parity, consolidating the excellent +7,50% accumulated since the beginning of the year. There ECB contributed to justifying with fundamental considerations the very gratifying performance of the European stock markets in this initial period through the mouth of its most authoritative exponent, the president Christine Lagard: “After an expansion of +3,4% in 2022, euro area economic activity was weak in 2023, with real GDP growth stagnant in the last quarter. However, there are more and more signs of a trend reversal and some forward-looking indicators point to a recovery over the course of the year,” the president said during an official event.
The BTP Valore advances, the spread decreases
Consolidation session for government bonds. Yield XNUMX-year Treasuries at 4,27%. The 54 billion dollar auction of the Five-year Treasury. The two-year bond reached a yield rate of 4,72%, the highest in three months. Bund 2,44%. BTP 3,88%. BTP/Bund spread at 144 basis points, at a two-year low.
The BTP value collected total orders for 6,44 billion euros on the first day of placement, compared to 4,75 billion in the previous issue.
Watch out for US PCE prices
The focus is on the data ofUS PCE price index – the Fed's preferred inflation indicator – which will be released on Thursday. A further slowdown is expected in January to +2,4% from +2,6% in December. It would be the lowest pace in two years. The "core" data is also expected to slow down to +2,8% from +2,9%. It is worth underlining that both data would still remain above the +2% target set by the FED, giving support to the arguments of those who support the need to maintain a rigorous attitude.
Monday prices Petroleum they turned higher in the afternoon, (Brent at $82,50) on returning concerns of tight supply and the risk of shipping disruptions, analysts said. As the Israel-Hamas conflict continues in the Middle East, White House National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan told CNN that negotiators from the United States, Egypt, Qatar and Israel had agreed on the basic outlines of an agreement on hostages during talks in Paris, but negotiations were still ongoing.
Piazza Affari: the highlighted titles
Prysmian announced today that it has finalized the contract relating to the order worth approximately 1,9 billion assigned by Eastern Green Link 2 Limited, a joint venture between SSEN Transmission and National Grid Electricity Transmission PLC, owners of the electricity transmission systems in the UK. As part of the contract, Prysmian will supply an important high voltage direct current cable system for the development of the Eastern Green Link 2 network which will connect Scotland and England, as the company explained in a statement. The award of the EGL2 order, which can now be included in Prysmian's order backlog, follows the company's previous selection as exclusive "preferred bidder" in May last year and the subsequent commitment made in June to guarantee the continued availability of Prysmian's capacity for the project. The new link is expected to be operational in 2029.
Unicredit is considering an acquisition of cloud banking platform Vodeno owned by private equity firm Warburg Pincus, he writes Bloomberg.
Edison -Snam: The two companies have announced the start of exclusive negotiations for the purchase and sale of the three natural gas storage sites that Edison owns in Italy.
Banca Popolare di Sondrio: The rating agency S&P Global has assigned Banca Popolare di Sondrio the BBB- for the stand alone credit profile and for the Long-term Issuer Credit; the Short-Term Issuer Credit Rating is “A-3″, the Long-term Resolution Counterparty Rating is “BBB”, the Short-term Resolution Counterparty Rating is “A-2″. The outlook regarding all assigned ratings, explains a note, is assessed as "stable". The positive ratings assigned reflect the appreciation for the high capitalization, the positive track record in risk management, the development potential related to the consolidated presence of the bank in the most developed regions of the country.
A2A: The municipality of Brescia has never discussed with Milan the possibility of cutting the stake held in the Lombard superutility, equal to 25% plus one share each. This is what the mayor of Brescia, Laura Castelletti, said. The CEO, Renato Mazzoncini, underlined that the guiding star of the update of A2030A's 2 industrial plan expected on March 11, will be decarbonisation, the increase in the value of the company and the happiness of the members. This last statement seems to allude to an increase in the dividend. After Abruzzo, the battle for expired hydroelectric concessions also begins in Lombardy - the region that hosts the largest number of hydroelectric power plants.
