Opening of the week Wall Street orphan, stopped for Martin Luther King Day. But the winds of war blowing across the Persian Gulf are heating up the atmosphere. The Anglo-American raids against the bases Houthi they have not yet reset it threat that weighs on maritime traffic and logistics chains of the global economy.
I markets ask whether this crisis, combined with the problems of the Panama Canal, could lead to a rise significant of theinflation together with a sharp slowdown in growth. But this risk is contained by the weak demand on the energy front: the Petroleum the week begins just above 80 dollars.
In Taiwan the anti-China party wins
Also noteworthy are the effects of the first electoral challenges of the year: Taiwan assigned the majority of votes to Lai Ching-te, candidate of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP). Lai, 64, outgoing vice president with studies at Harvard, is seen by Beijing as a firm supporter of the island's sovereignty. There DPP victory in Taiwan “will not prevent the inevitable trend towardsunification with China“, commented the government of the People's Republic of Beijing.
The economy also continues to cause problems. Fourth quarter GDP data will be published on Wednesday. Expectations are for a slowdown in trend terms, confirming that Chinese growth is currently struggling to regain strength.
Spotlight on the Republican primaries in Iowa
But the spotlight is already moving onto the frozen plains ofIowa where the first act of the long race for the White House is celebrated with the Republican primaries. The first data confirm the wide margin of advantage of Donald Trump, credited with 48% of the votes compared to the other Republican candidates.
In the US, we are waiting for Wednesday when the December retail sales will be released, an important litmus test for Christmas shopping. The forecast is +4%, compared to an expected +4,1%. Meanwhile, the story continues quarterly campaign after the booming debut of JP Morgan: 9,3 billion in profits, historic record for the sector.
The markets are waiting for the central banks
The markets wait signals from central banks on the timing of the easing of monetary policy. The chief economist of the ECB, Philip Lane, has postponed the appointment with the rate cut: the decision, he said, will be evaluated in June, together with the data on salary dynamics: "A too rapid revision of the cost of money could prove self-defeating".
Meanwhile, purchases of government bonds are restarting. Treasury Notes ten years at 3,95%. Biennial at 4,12%. The price of the 0,80-year bond rose by XNUMX% over the week.
XNUMX-year bund at 2,18%. Third week of decline for the Bund future, -0,3% compared to last Friday. XNUMX-year BTP to 3,702%. spread around the lows since March 2022, at 153 basis points. Future BTP +0,6% in the week. In the Eurozone the data will be released on Monday German GDP for the whole of 2023, which should certify the recession.
The Davos forum begins, waiting for the former Ilva
During the week yes the Davos forum opens in which the president of the ECB will participate Christine Lagarde. On the domestic front, the climate remains hot dossier on the former Ilva while the data on inflation for December will be released on Tuesday. Another eagerly awaited event is the speech of the new governor of Bank of Italy Fabio Panetta to the Abi steering committee, scheduled for Wednesday in Milan.
