Just a false start? The data onUS inflation hopes for a rapid turning point in the Fed's strategies are cooling: in the next central bank meeting, in three weeks, there will not be a further increase, but confirmation that rates will have to remain high for quite a while. Wall Street's positive streak thus ends and yields begin to rise again, but what drives operators to be extremely cautious is the fear that the world is about to experience a nightmare weekend, awaiting the Israeli ground operation in Gaza Strip, anticipated by the warning to the Palestinians to evacuate the territories north of Wadi-Gaza. For now, the markets display a prudence that has the flavor of the calm before the storm.
Opening in the red in Milan, at a three-month high
- Given these signals, it is not surprising that European stock markets are destined to open in the red: EuroStoxx50 futures -0,2%. Piazza Affari – 0,2%, London flat, Frankfurt -0,25%, Paris -0,07%.
- The Ftse Mib in Milan ended yesterday's session with a rise of 0,3%, scaled down in the final stages after the data on US inflation.
- Thanks to the third consecutive rise, the index reached three-week highs. The provisional balance for the week is an excellent +2,5%, the best result in three months. Thanks to banks and energy.
American futures recovering after the flop
- Wall Street closed lower after four sessions of gains. S&P500 -0,6%. Futures are slightly positive.
- The provisional balance for the week for both is positive by around 1%.
Microsoft lands in Activision
- British antitrust authority gives green light to Microsoft's purchase of Activision. A 70 billion dollar video game giant is born.
Asia slows down, China in deflation
- Asian markets also fell. The long sequence of positive sessions is interrupted and the week's gains are reduced.
- The index Tokyo Nikkei loses half a point. The balance of the week is still positive: +4%.
- China in the spotlight. The latest data confirms that Beijing, unlike the West, is not suffering from rising prices but from deflation. Consumer prices recorded a change of zero for the year in September, while production prices fell by 2,5%.
- The authorities are preparing the launch of a financial market stabilization fund, a tool capable of restoring confidence in the stock market. Bloomberg reports that the regulator has already held two rounds of consultations with industry operators. The fund should have an endowment of a few hundred billion yuan. Meanwhile, the sovereign fund has already taken action, with the purchase in recent sessions of approximately 65 million dollars of shares in the country's major banks.
- In sharp decline Hong Kong -2,43% faced with the prospect of new collapses in real estate. CSI 300 of the Shanghai and Shenzen lists -1%, -0,7% for the week. Taiwan Taiex -0,5%, +3% on the week.
Oil under control, new flare-up on gas
The energy alarm is growing again, even if the numbers are under control for now: Brent at $86,60, the wtf at 83,20. This morning the opening is up 0,7% on the week +2,5%. OPEC has decided not to change its forecast for relatively strong growth in global oil demand in the remainder of 2023 and 2024, justifying the decision by the presence of signs of a resilient world economy and the prospect of further increases in Chinese demand. According to the Organization, global oil demand will increase by 2,25 million barrels per day in 2024, compared to growth of 2,44 million in 2023
I prices are increasing after the US tightened sanctions on Russian crude exports, raising supply concerns in an already tight market. Bloomberg reported that Russia has managed to circumvent the sanctions in recent months thanks to its own fleet of ships. Yesterday it emerged that US crude inventories rose by 10,2 million barrels to 424 million, the fastest pace in eight months.
Il EU Natural Gas (Amsterdam) flew to 53 euros/mwh, the highest since August, with a jump of 15%, +38% for the week. In recent sessions there has been a lot of speculation, linked to the events in Israel and the damage to the gas pipeline Baltic connector, damaged between Finland and Estonia. But natural gas storage in Europe is at record levels for this time of year, providing high winter protection.
Tbonds start again, the US confidence index worsens
After a brief pause, tension on government bonds rises again. In the US, Treasury yields jumped, following the inflation data to 4,65% from 4,57%. Two-year Treasury at 5,03% from 4,98%.
In the Eurozone: XNUMX-year bund to 2,78% from 2,71%, XNUMX-year BTP to 4,75% from 4,65%. Spread at 196 from 194.
Attention is entirely focused on the statements of central bankers and the dynamics of inflation, with an eye on oil and gas prices. Data on import/export prices and the Michigan confidence index, expected to decline, arrive today in the USA.
Spread at 196. IMF: ready to intervene
Meanwhile i ECB minutes of September confirm that rates will still remain high to avoid the risk of inflation remaining uncontrolled. The decision to raise the interest rate by 25 basis points was fought out among members, but is a sign of “strong determination to bring inflation back to the target level in a timely manner”.
The ECB is carefully following thespread trend said Governing Council member Gabriel Makhlouf on the sidelines of the IMF meeting. The topic is taken into consideration and the tools for any intervention are ready. What is happening to Italy's debt rate is not just a market issue, "it is absolutely something that we, the ECB, will focus a lot on."
Brembo calls Pirelli who (for now) does not respond
In the spotlight Bper. Banca Barclays raises its rating to Overweight, the same analyst increases the target price of Unicredit and Mediobanca
Brembo Pirelli. A marriage between Pirelli and Brembo? “It would be a good thing,” said the founder and president emeritus of the Bergamo group, Alberto Bombassei, yesterday. I have great admiration for this company, at the moment ours are two sectors that contact each other because they are close in business: brakes and tyres. Added to this - he underlined - is the fact that our businesses are also valid for electric". But "at the moment there is nothing serious." Marco Tronchetti, executive vice president of Pirelli, confirmed that there is no project under study.
Industrial Driver's License completed the acquisition of Hemisphere, a world leader in satellite navigation technologies, for a total consideration of $175 million. The company confirms its intention to complete the sixth tranche of $300 million of the buyback plan, with additional purchases amounting to approximately $21,8 million.
Generali has reached an agreement with Allianz for the sale of TUA Assicurazioni for a consideration of 280 million euros in cash. The operation is expected to be completed by the first quarter of 2024. The proceeds are worth approximately an additional percentage point at Solvency 2 ratio level. After these operations, the chances of a next buy back plan increase.
Dovalue In the first nine months of the year it acquired new contracts for 689 million euros from some large Spanish banks, such as Banco Sabadell and CaixaBank, and from other investors.
