The one on June 25th in the Hague will be a 3-hour “flash summit” at the latest during which the heads of state and government of the 32 countries of theAtlantic Alliance in the presence of Donald Trump they will be called to share a final document which only provides for thefinal goal of a increase defense spending up to 5%.
Objective repeatedly indicated by the American president and the Secretary General of NATO Mark Rutte has now made it its own by justifying it with the risk of a possible threat of the Russian Federation on the eastern borders of Europe.
Fear of a Russian attack by 2030
In his recent visit to Rome, Rutte quoted the German Chief of Staff, who said that “by 2029-2030 Russia could be ready to try something against NATO territory. Today we are safe, but in three or five years we might not be. We need to spend more".
It is no mystery that recent German and Lithuanian intelligence reports agree in evaluating some data that range from the recruitment of new Russian soldiers (about 1,5 million) to the expenditure on armaments (up to 8% of GDP) to the deployment of troops in some border areas and which lead to the conclusion that between 3-5 years Russian Federation It could carry out what are called “NATO credibility tests”, not really an invasion but rather a “survey” of the Alliance's defensive response capacity.
Doubts, chaotic figures and the crux of the criteria
“Rutte is exaggerating a little,” explains the ambassador. Alessandro Minuto Rizzo, former deputy secretary general of NATO – tries to save what can be saved, is afraid of the threatening and unfriendly attitude of the Americans and therefore only talks about money but not about strategies that should go well beyond the Russian threat and involve the entire spectrum of possible new threats including China”. According to Minuto Rizzo, the summit will end with some “chaotic figures” within which everyone will try to carve out their own room for maneuver. The 5% is already expected to be made up of 3,5% of expenditure on actual armaments and 1,5% for expenditure on infrastructure, cyber and dual use.
“It's all one question of criteria to interpret – adds the general Vincent Camporini, former Chief of Staff of the Defence and IAI advisor – if, for example, only the 2 Carabinieri employed in missions abroad are included in the 10% that Italy wants to bring to The Hague, it's one thing, but it's another if you include all 130 Carabinieri or the military personnel of Strade sicura as well as the sailors of the Coast Guard and the Port Authorities who depend on the Ministry of Infrastructure”.
Rutte, Camporini adds, "insists on the 5% mantra because Trump says so even if only 3,5% concerns real military capabilities and 1,5% resilience capacity, that is, the ability to resist attacks". But the real problem for Camporini is accelerate the integration of European military capabilities and create a real European defense industry policy. “The new EU commissioner Kubilius – Camporini observes – should bring together the CEOs of large groups from Thales to Rheinmetall to Leonardo and immediately establish a road map to achieve common goals".
The position of Italy
As for Italy, there are those who say that Meloni will bring to The Hague as a great result the2% target which with some accounting adjustments has in fact already been achieved. The Minister of Economy himself Giorgetti in a recent conference in Rome on defense promoted by the League, optimistic saying on the possibility that with increases of 0,2% per year in defense spending over ten years the target of 3,5% can be achieved. The Hague negotiations will be played out in practice more on the times than on the 5% target: Italy and the United Kingdom are aiming for 10 years but many countries would like shorter times, seven years maximum.
Before The Hague at the G7 in Canada the same Trump could clarify the timing and methods of American disengagement in Europe. Defense Minister Crosetto, who met with his NATO counterparts, summarized the Italian position as follows: “Gradualism, flexibility and realistic criteria”. It is around these three cornerstones that Giorgia Meloni has built her proposal on increasing military spending. Italy is ready to do its part, but with method.
But there is also a another fact to consider: Many Italians oppose an increase in defense spending, as Deputy Prime Minister Matteo Salvini has argued. Meloni faces a difficult balancing act to satisfy domestic demands, appease NATO allies, and avoid alienating Trump.
