Deflation hangs over the fate of Europe, judging by the forecasts for the Eurozone leaving Brussels. But the Italian public is fond of protection against the high cost of living. And so the BTP Italia indexed to Italian inflation, expiring on 12 November 2017, enjoys a resounding success, much higher than the Treasury's expectations. On the first day, securities were subscribed for a value of 16.841,089 million euro. Subscriptions will close at 14pm today. Despite the early stop, it is highly probable that the record of 18 billion raised in October 2012 by the Treasury during the four-day placement of the BTP Italia in October 2016 could be broken. On the secondary market, the 4,16-year BTP closed at 242% with spread at XNUMX, unchanged.
Mario Draghi, who spoke yesterday at a conference, did not offer any indications of any kind on the possible choices of the ECB directorate, in the face of the latest indications on the situation in the euro area: modest growth, inflation at 1,5%, rising unemployment in 2014 up to the ceiling of 12,5%. Pressure for a rate cut is growing, even if the move is more likely in December when the Fed could start tapering, albeit in a symbolic way. Meanwhile, the dollar is strengthening against the euro, which fell to 1,347 from 1,351 and against the yen, at 98,64.
EXCHANGES, ONLY ASIA IN POSITIVE SOIL
The drop in the Japanese currency explains the rebound in Tokyo +0,90%. After four negative sessions, the Asia Pacific index and the Hong Kong Stock Exchange also rose +0,68%. US stocks marginally down, penalized by profit-taking after two days of gains and by caution in anticipation of important macro data on the agenda towards the end of the week. The Dow Jones fell 0,07%, the S&P 500 0,16% and the Nasdaq 0,03%.
After the Stock Exchange, Tesla's positive results were announced +0,92%. The manufacturer of luxury electric cars (550 cars a week. So far 5.500 deliveries) reports earnings per share of 12 cents (10 cents forecast). However few to justify a sidereal quotation: 176,81 dollars.
The ISM services index for October, above expectations, had no impact on the market: the figure rose from 54,4 points in September to 55,4 points. The focus is already on the October GDP and jobs data delayed due to the government shutdown. The Federal Reserve has indicated it will not begin tapering its $85 billion-a-month bond-buying program until the economy shows signs of improving, an argument reiterated in speeches by three central bank members yesterday.
Negative stock markets in Europe on a day marked by profit-taking, after yesterday the main indices hit five-year highs. The forecasts of the European Commission weigh on the GDP of the Eurozone, for 2013 down by 0,4% (-1,4% the previous forecast). On the other hand, the forecasts for Italy have been revised downwards: the current year should close with a 1,8% drop in GDP compared to the -1,3% of the spring forecasts.
London is back by 0,2%, Paris -0,8%, Frankfurt -0,3%. In Milan, the FtseMib fell by 1,1%.
DOWN INTESA AND UNICREDIT, DESPITE THE GOOD MARKS
The worst stock was Unicredit -2,58%, despite Jp Morgan raising its target price from 5,51 to 5,72, reiterating its overweight rating. However, the investment bank cut its adjusted EPS forecast for the third quarter of 2013 (the accounts will be released on 11 November) by 39% to 0,02 euros per share, mainly due to pressure on German margins and higher commissions. low. Morgan Stanley also confirmed the positive view on Unicredit, with a new target price of 7 euro and increased the target price on Intesa from 1,8 euro to 2,1 euro -2,29%, confirming the equalweight opinion.
Target price also up for Banco Popolare -1,96%. Bpm +2,13%, target at 0,5 euro, with underweight rating confirmed. An astonishing performance given the permanent turbulence at the top: yesterday's nine-hour meeting was not enough to resolve the issue of how to choose the new managing director to replace Piero Montani. The meeting resumed today. On the one hand, the president Andrea Bonomi is aiming for an early renewal to allow the new management to have a three-year mandate. On the contrary, Raffaele Mincione, second shareholder with a 7,02% stake, has alerted the Bank of Italy and Consob against this hypothesis: in short, disorder still reigns supreme in Piazza Meda.
Banca Generali closed the September financial statements with a consolidated net result of 105,1 million, up 7,8% compared to the same period last year. While since the beginning of the year, funding has reached 2 billion. Among the insurance companies Generali, on the eve of today's board meeting, fell by 0,5%, Fondiaria-Sai -1,1%.
PIRELLI, THE FUTURE IS STILL IN THE EMERGING
Pirelli's new industrial plan +1,49% will be presented today in London which, according to the chairman Marco Tronchetti Provera, will position itself in continuity with what has been done in recent years: concentration on the premium sector and development on emerging markets. As regards the accounts approved by the board of directors, in the first 9 months of 2013 the group reported a net profit down by 14,9% to 258,1 million on revenues which grew by 1,7% to 4,649 billion. Expectations for EBIT are confirmed, standing at 581,7 million with a drop of 3,2% on the corresponding period of 2012. The negative impact of exchange rates was significant, with 6,6% on revenues and for almost 38 million on EBIT. The exchange rate effect and the 'changed scenario of the tire market in Russia' led Pirelli to review its year-end objectives. Consolidated turnover is now expected at 6,2 billion (from 6,3-6,35 in the previous estimate) and the consolidated EBIT will drop to approximately 790 million from the 810 million of the previous target.
It so happens that, on the eve of a delicate Board meeting, today the Telecom Italia +0,1% dossier will also be submitted to the examination of the City. In fact, the meeting with analysts is being held in London, organized by Marco Fossati, a 5% shareholder of the TLC group who has asked for the meeting to be convened for the revocation of the current board of directors and the appointment of a new board. The industrial plan, which will be illustrated tomorrow by CEO Marco Patuano, according to rumors, should provide for a capital increase of between 1,3 and 2 billion euros. Meanwhile, the assessments on the sale of Argentina continue, while to date there is no possible sale of the Brazilian assets: however, in the event that a sale is proposed, the independent directors would be ready to request the appointment of an independent advisor for the evaluation .
BMW AND CITIGROUP HOLD DOWN FIAT, MEDIASET RELEASES
Difficult day in Europe for the auto sector (-1,13%), in the wake of the decline of BMW -3,20% after the accounts. Exor -2,44% and Fiat -1,13% lost ground, penalized not only by the German group's quarterly report but also by the drop in car registrations in October in Italy (the market -5,6%, -8,7% Fiat) and the confirmation of the 'sell' judgment by Citigroup (target price at 4,5 euros), also due to the still too high debt. Enel falls by 2,4%, Eni -1%, Saipem also negative -0,9%. Good rise by Mediaset +3,4%, supported by the promotion to "Conviction buy" by Goldman Sachs.
MID CAP, INDESIT WILL NOT STOP
Among the mid caps, Indesit rose again +2,4% after yesterday's +13%. In the rest of the list, the best share was Bioera +21,285 which brings the gains made since November 37, the day on which the company filed the communication with Borsa Italiana, to around +65,5% (+30% from 1 September). of pre-admission for the subsidiary Ki group, which will be listed on Aim Italia, the list dedicated to small and medium-sized enterprises. Also noteworthy are TI Media -1,71% which reduced losses after the communication of quarterly data and Prelios -1,94% with Intermonte which reduced the target price of the share from 0,78 to 0,72 euro, confirming the neutral recommendation.
