Green wave today on world markets, with a more convinced bullish trend than yesterday. Piazza Affari travels at a slow pace, but closes positively (+0,21 the FTSE MIB), also supported by oil stocks, with crude oil approaching the highest levels since last summer: the December future on Brent now stands at 51,10 dollars a barrel (on the highest level since August), the November future on WTI is 48,90 a barrel (on highest since July). Stocks such as Saipem (+1,85), Tenaris (+1,50), Eni (+1,01) benefited. The engines of the auto sector are roaring, with Fiat Chrysler Automobiles (+1,05) and Ferrari (+2,02), after the positive sales data released yesterday.
Also worth mentioning the boom of the new Btp 50, with a 50-year maturity, which apparently attracts investors: the issue will amount to 5 billion, against orders exceeding 18,5 billion euros, including 2,4 billion from joint lead managers. The fixed yield is 52 basis points above the March 2047 BTP rate (with a current yield of 2,33%).
Going back to the Stock Exchange, the race in Milan is held back today once again bythe bankers, who travel at two speeds. Among the worst stocks is Unicredit (-1,08%), also due to the uncertainty about the extent of the forthcoming capital increase. In the morning, a Credit Suisse study was released which, in the worst-case scenario, estimates a capital deficit of 15,7 billion euros for the bank, of which 7,7 billion for a capital increase. While awaiting news on the industrial plan, recapitalization and expected disposals, CS suggests prudence in purchases, even though the bank's fundamentals are solid and downside risks limited.
Monte dei Paschi falls by 1,36%. on the day in which Consob announces that it has extended the ban, expiring tomorrow, on net short positions on the stock until 5 January 2017. The measure also concerns option rights and convertible bonds. For its part, the MPS Foundation in the 'Multi-year strategic planning document' and in view of the next capital increase does not rule out "even significant dilutions of the shareholding" equal to 1,49% today.
The Popolari are in positive territory, +2,2% for Bpm, +1,5% for Banco Popolare. Uptrend also for luxury with Salvatore Ferragamo (1,65), Moncler (+1,95%) and Yoox (+2,05).
However, the brightest stock is Cairo Communication, with a leap of 7,18%. The stock appreciates in the aftermath of the first RCS board of directors in the Cairo era and after the appointment of Urbano Cairo as managing director. There is expectation for the reorganization that the new ownership, which controls the La7 television channels and 59,7% of RCS Mediagroup, will bring to the two publishing groups.
Looking outside national borders, the devaluation is good for the British: London gains 1,3%, while the pound touches its lowest against the dollar for 31 years. Frankfurt (+1,03%) and Paris (+1,1%) also performed well.
Moderately positive start for Wall Street, waiting for Google to present its new smartphones in San Francisco. The macroeconomic data that the US stock exchanges are watching with the most interest is that on the unemployment rate which will be announced on Friday, it is one of the fundamentals for guiding the choices of the central bank and therefore for understanding the timing of the rate hike by the Federal Reserve.
During the day, the observations of the IMF on the global economy were also disclosed and the "weather" forecasts indicate changeable weather. World growth estimates for 2016-2017 remain unchanged at 3,1% and 3,4%, with GDP mainly supported by emerging countries. For Italy the revision is slightly downwards: +0,8% this year and +0,9% next year; the debt/GDP ratio will continue to rise (133,2% in 2016; 133,4% in 2017), but will drop significantly in 2021 (125%).
Returning to Italy, the minister Pier Carlo Padoan, however, remains convinced that there will be expected growth and in any case the government is doing what is necessary to make it so. “The programmatic GDP – he says – is not a bet, growth of 1% in 2017 is an optimistic goal according to some commentators, ambitious according to others. We too consider this goal ambitious and we have a duty to be so. This ambition is concretely supported by a maneuver that gives a boost, a boost to growth”. And in support of his reasons he states: "The maneuver is constructed with the care invoked by the governor of the ECB".
Meanwhile, the ECB's purchases of Italian government bonds are on the rise, rising in September to almost 11,81 billion euros (8,476 billion in August) as part of the Qe (Quantitative Easing) programme. This is what emerges from the ECB website, which results in the cumulative total of purchases for 176,160 billion. The average remaining length of the bonds is equal to 9,15 years.
On the monetary front, today the euro is losing ground against the dollar and is changed to 1,114 (-0,57%). Gold loses share: -2,15%.
