The illustrious US economist Nial Ferguson also said that the center of gravity of the world economy was moving ever further east, positioning the center of global GDP "a little further north than Kazakhstan", i.e. in Russian territory, but with eyes well aimed at Asia. It was centered precisely on Russia and on the opportunities it offers to Italian companies the conference “III Forum Investing in the new Russia” organized yesterday at Bocconi in Milan, in the presence of authorities from the former Soviet country and several Italian company captains.
“Statistics in hand – it was said almost in unison – Moscow is no longer to be considered a developing country. It is now a mature market, as are its consumers”. Almost 150 million attractive customers for local companies of which, in addition to the usual very rich, there are fewer and fewer poor (in 2012 they were 17 million, 12% of the population, at least for 20 years) and above all more and more members of the middle class. “After the fall of the Wall – explains Vittorio Volpi of Mikro Capital Sarl, an asset management company – they were just 4%, now according to many American economists 20% of Russians belong to the middle class”. Not to mention the constantly growing GDP and the unemployment rate below 6%, with peaks of 0,6% in the capital Moscow.
More and more potential buyers therefore, also by virtue of theirs historic passion for made in Italy and, in spite of the prejudices of the "Maginot line of public opinion" evoked several times by André Glucksmann towards the former Soviet world, increasingly in search of high quality products. As remembered in Bocconi by Guido Damiani, current president and grandson of the founder of the jewelry house Damiani Group, “Russia is the second largest market for Italian luxury and even in our country, Russian tourists, travelers and investors are in any case by far the first buyers: they buy luxury goods in Italy almost five times more than Americans, who are also the first buyers in the sector worldwide”.
Indeed, in the boot 29% of non-EU purchases come from Russian customers, ahead of Chinese and American third parties with 6%, while at European level the former Soviets still command but only with 20% of the market share. One more arrow to our bow, therefore, as well as that of the banking sector, where Unicredit is the first foreign bank in Russia and the eighth among all credit institutions. “We have 20 billion euros of total assets in Russia”, explained Alessandro Decio of Unicredit, also recalling how “Russia will be the main car market for the next ten years, and it is the reason for our joint venture with Renault Nissan in Moscow”.
Automotive market in which, however, Italy could do more, as recalled by the vice president of Altagamma Armando Branchini: “Russia has a 5-6% global market share for high-end products in which Italy is the leader, except in the auto sector: we make a breakthrough instead in household goods, food&beverage and personal care. However, the opportunity is still to be exploited: the economy of Moscow and its surroundings will grow for at least another 6-7 years”.
Period during which those who have not yet bet on Russia, such as Amplifon, will have plenty of time to do so: "We are present in 20 countries around the world - explains CEO Franco Moscetti - and already market leader in the USA, Australia and New Zealand , but not yet in Russia: we are looking for a local partner to enter. At the moment the obstacles are the too young average age, low for our target, and a healthcare system which, although excellent, is still 'hospital-centric' and does not favor business like ours”.
Then, for all those attending the conference at Bocconi, there is the great obstacle of customs duties, still too high at 20% and which will drop only in 2017 according to the agreements made with the entry into force of Moscow in the WTO. “Two other dangerous pathologies – says Branchini of Altagamma – are the growth of the parallel market and the spread of counterfeiting, due to the single customs border with Belarus and Kazakhstan, which opens the doors to Chinese products”.
So Kazakhstan as a new center of gravity but also as a potential danger for the Russian economy? If, on the one hand, the expansion of the parallel market would be a disaster for Made in Italy, there are however those who think like Ferguson: "The pendulum of the world economy is moving more and more eastwards - claims Volpi of Mikro Capital - : it is normal for Russia to direct its potential towards Asia, which grows by 6,6%, rather than towards Europe, which stops at 0,7%. After all Russia-China trade now reaches 80 billion dollars, far exceeding those with Germany, while trade with South Korea has increased fivefold in the last three years. And this only increases the potential of a country that also occupies a strategic position geographically”. And this, by extension, is also a great good for Italy.
