Not exactly a luxury item, but almost. In the future, beer could become scarce in the world, making it much more expensive than today. The reason? It's too hot: Droughts and heat waves are taking a toll on barley crops. And barley, once transformed into malt, is the main ingredient of beer.
The alcoholic-apocalyptic scenario is provided by a study published in the journal Nature Plants: the models that explain the future have been developed by a group of researchers from the University of Peking led by Wei Xie in collaboration with a coordinated team from the University of California by Steven Davis. The research started from the observation that "in periods of extreme drought and heat, the production of barley is drastically reduced".
To obtain the first quantitative data relating to this particular sensitivity of barley crops to a more arid and hot climate, the researchers developed a model capable of providing different scenarios, relating to different climatic situations. “We have seen – they say – that these extreme events can cause a substantial reduction in the yield of barley in the world”. A loss which, depending on the degree of drought and temperatures, could vary from 3% to 17%.
This is exactly what is likely to happen by 2099: if the forecasts on climate trends are correct, barley will become a rarity and therefore beer too. And given that supply will collapse, but demand will presumably remain high, it is easy to predict a surge in prices, which could even double.
The result would be a 16% reduction in global beer consumption, equal to 29 billion liters, the equivalent of the annual consumption of the United States. Even in the most optimistic scenario, consumption would fall by 4% and prices would rise by 15%.
Obviously, the countries where the consumption of beer in proportion to the population is higher would be most affected by all this. Starting with Ireland, Belgium and the Czech Republic. In Poland, prices could rise fivefold, while in many other countries, from Germany to the United Kingdom and Japan, consumption could drop by almost a third.
