According to estimates published in focus Intesa Sanpaolo of March, in 2012 the growth rate of the Belarusian GDP slowed down by 1,5% compared to 5,5% in the previous year, mainly due to the slowdown in the international economy and the adjustment measures taken by the authorities to deal with the 2011 balance of payments crisis. If, on the one hand, a drop in construction activity (-9,8%) and sales services (-6,8%) was recorded on the supply side, this did not, however, involve the manufacturing sector (+ 6,4%), being the processing of energy products, chemistry and vehicle assembly the most dynamic industrial sectors, despite the lack of technological progress, covered by energy supplies at subsidized prices and privileged access to the Russian market. But without the necessary systemic modernization driven by structural reforms and technical progress, there is the risk that in the long run this will have repercussions like a boomerang, crystallizing current standards from both an economic and social point of view. Agricultural production has also grown (+6%), driven by crops of grains (wheat, barley), beets and potatoes, even if its productivity is still low and depends on state subsidies. On the demand side, alongside a growth in consumption (+5,5%), a fall in investments was instead recorded (-8%). In this context, financial stabilization thanks to the contribution of foreign capital should favor a progressive recovery of investments, while as regards consumption, a less accentuated trend is expected compared to 2012, due to the contained trend in disposable income. For the Belarusian economy as a whole, forecasts speak of one growth of 2,5% in 2013, accelerating to 3,5% in 2014, despite the fact that 80% of productive activities still remain in the hands of the state, as well as 75% of the banks.
Belarus faced a severe balance of payments crisis during the years 2010 and 2011, caused by a particularly expansive economic policy and a highly overvalued real exchange rate which, together, favored a significant increase in the current account deficit and a strong drain on foreign exchange reserves used to support the nominal exchange rate. Afterwards, the country has signed new agreements with Russia for the supply of oil and gas at subsidized prices in a framework of strengthening economic relations, resulting in loans worth $1 billion (through state-owned bank Sberbank) and new direct investment ($2,5 billion, including the sale of controlling stake in national gas grid operator Beltransgaz to Russia's Gazprom) . After an initial exchange defense, however, the authorities were forced to devalue the currency, the ruble, in stages, to pass, in October 2011, to a controlled floating regime, thus abandoning the peg, in force since 2009, of the national currency to a basket of currencies made up of the dollar, the euro and the Russian ruble. At the same time the government adopted both a more restrictive fiscal policy and a more restrictive monetary policy. Belarus was thus able to draw on the EurAsEC anti-crisis fund (the Eurasian Economic Community which includes Belarus, Russia, Kazakhstan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan), for 1,2 billion dollars. These flows of funds led in 2011 to a substantial surplus in the financial account (equal to 11,7% of GDP) and the rebuilding of reserves which, at the end of 2011, amounted to 5,4 billion dollars. During 2012, the ruble stabilized, while inflation decreased significantly, although remaining within two decimal places, with the trend equal to 21,8% in December 2012 compared to 109,7% in January 2012.
However, the external position remains vulnerable. Reserves offer a low coverage of imports, while balance of payments balances still heavily depend on support, in the form of transfers, loans and supplies of gas and oil at subsidized prices, from friendly countries, Russia first and foremost. The internal market is still heavily regulated, the presence of the private sector is limited and still subject to restrictions, despite Belarus having a relatively high per capita income, a low public deficit and a large industrial base (although it needs substantial investment to modernize) and a highly educated workforce.
From a product point of view, energy resources represent the main item both in terms of imports (42% of the total) and exports (36%), as they are imported from Russia and mainly destined for European markets after some transformations. The other main items are related to capital goods, such as mechanical, electrical and electronic machinery, vehicles and raw materials such as iron and steel. Furthermore, the other main export items are represented by means of transport, fertilisers, mechanical machinery and agro-food products.
In this scenario the main markets of destination and supply of goods are those of the CIS countries, in particular the Eurasian Economic Community, and, within them, Russia, with which it had about 2011% of trade in 45. With the establishment of a Customs Union in October 2007, which became operational from the beginning of 2010, and the creation of a Common Economic Space from January 2012 between Russia, Belarus and Kazakhstan, an area of free exchange of goods, capital and labor was established, open to successive accessions between the CIS countries, the so-called Eurasian Area.
Belarus does not represent yet for the Italian trade balance a significant share. Since 2010, the recovery has allowed a revival and trade has reached 550 million euros (+20% approx.) in 2011 and 639 million (+15%) in 2012, thanks to a lively growth (+95%) of imports Italian companies (176 million), against a substantial consolidation of exports at 463 million (+0,04%). The trade balance is positive for Italy, equal to 287 million in 2012. And if Italian exports mainly concern mechanical machinery for about 50% of the total, followed by metals and metal products (10,2%), textiles and clothing (9,1 %), chemicals (7,9%), electrical appliances (4,4%) and means of transport (4,2%), imports are represented by petroleum refining products for almost 60% of the total, followed by those chemicals (17%), metallurgy (12,2%), textiles (7%), as well as wood, paper and cellulose (2,2%).
