Dear Italy, don't delude yourself, he warns Giuseppe Berta, economic historian, who as a good Piedmontese does not disdain, when necessary, to wear the clothes of Bastian Contrario. “The long-term signals coming from companies do not bode well. Fortunately, the picture is in chiaroscuro. Luckily for us, there is no shortage of successful companies or positive initiatives, among which the Industry 4.0 plan stands out. But our contribution to the global economy is exhausted as we rise from the lower floors to the decision-making centres, where capitalism's development plans are decided. Our presence has shrunk, relegating us more and more to the margins of the activities that count and create added value”.
One could argue that this is not big news. And then, the data show that the Italian system is in full recovery. Or not?
“The numbers, for now, lag behind 2007/08 manufacturing levels. But, beyond the economic recovery, there remains the feeling of a certain planning vacuum, of a lack of future. From this point of view it seems to me that things are getting worse and worse. On the contrary, it is vital that economic Italy rethinks itself in order to rediscover its place in the world. Indeed, I believe that the issue should be tackled urgently and in the forums that matter ”.
“The last alarm bell – continues the Bocconi professor – came with the industrial plan of Leonardo, the former Finmeccanica. I have great respect for Alessandro Profumo, who among other things has repeatedly spoken to our students demonstrating his ability to arouse the attention and enthusiasm of young people. But precisely for this reason I was struck by the criticisms of international analysts of the business plan. It's not so much a question of short-term targets or of difficulties linked to the budget constraints of the reference shareholder. What emerged and is at the bottom of the criticisms raised by international analysts is the absence of a strategic vision that explains where the most important Italian financial holding company wants to arrive at the end of the plan, in view of the XNUMXs. And so one has the feeling of witnessing the continuation of an infinite transition, without an ambitious goal, which should be within the reach of a leading company. In short, a defensive strategy comes out while the others run. But in this way there is the risk of ending up relegated to a subordinate role: it is one thing to cooperate with partners, it is quite another to be reduced to being a follower”.
It seems an ungenerous judgment.
“It is an example of a problem common to what remains of the large Italian company. Leonardo particularly worries me about the technological value and the repercussions that a large company can have for research and innovation of the entire system. But also because it represents an example of the stimulus that the State can have for the economy of a medium-sized country like ours. Above all because for some years, let's say since the end of the Cold War, it has lost its points of reference. Europe, far from presenting itself as a driving force for development, often appears to us as a stern stepmother, more than anything anxious not to get involved in our problems. The recent document by 14 economists, 7 German, 7 French, on the prospects of Europe is exemplary. Above all, a concern emerges from the text: creating a cordon sanitaire that sterilizes the Italian risk. Other than development”.
Relations with the USA have also changed.
“We are orphans of the Wall, but also of the inability to have the strength to play an effective role in the Mediterranean area. In this context, the USA represented an important outlet for Made in Italy. But how long can it last? On the currency front, Trump's America's willingness to put pressure on the exchange lever with the aim of countering Germany is transparent. Italy risks being the earthenware pot of the situation. A large part of our exports concern consumer goods that can be put out of the market by rising prices; an American will sooner give up a glass of Brunello than buy a BMW”.
Even if German cars certainly don't enjoy a good image in the USA after the latest dieselgate developments.
“In reality, the profits of the German groups are excellent, despite the commitment on the electric front or other innovations. But the difficulties of diesel illustrate well the difficulties of European industry in the face of change. The real limit compared to American flexibility. But let's not overlook the enormous effort for the car of the future, by both the Germans and the Americans and Japanese, in the face of which the performance of the Agnelli group is reduced. In Italy, Fiat Chrysler's investments are lagging behind, the presence of electricity is reduced to Chrysler's role of sub-supplier of Waymo”.
Yet the markets reward the Marchionne recipe.
“And they are right because he will achieve all the objectives he has promised also because, let us not forget, the bonus of the CEO who is about to hand over the powers to his successor is linked to the elimination of debts. We will see. Marchionne has demonstrated at least two virtues in recent years: he is a great negotiator, and he has demonstrated it on a thousand occasions. But he is also a great aggregator. Unfortunately, Angela Merkel said no to the union between Fiat-Chrysler and Opel which would have guaranteed the leap in quality. And the same has happened, so far, with Gm. Therefore Marchionne's masterpiece risks remaining unfinished. And it is not clear what will happen after him. He is surprised by the idea that the successor must execute the industrial plan that will be left to him by the current administrator ”.
There is not only big industry, however.
“Fortunately for us, there is a solid base of companies with a turnover of 250 million up to 2-3 billion that continue to demonstrate that they can stand up to the competition and work as a team. An excellent example is the IMA of Bologna. Not only is the company competitive, but it has been able to create a system for the benefit of its suppliers and the reference territory, thinking like a large company. In another context, Prima Industrie is doing well, among the world leaders in lasers, rather than the chemical and pharma industrialists. But there is a parabola common to these excellences: they are unable to go beyond a certain organizational limit. Faced with the leap, both in size and in business area, the system marks time. Let's take the example of luxury: we have excellent companies, but we have never created a world-class network like Lvmh or Kering2.
Or the food?
“An example of intelligent international growth is undoubtedly that of Lavazza. But we are around two billion. Ferrero has taken the plunge in terms of size. But I hope it doesn't stop halfway through: at this point it is necessary to provide the group with an adequate financial dimension that can only be allowed by landing on the Stock Exchange. This would be the signal of a real change of course”.
A trend that, in truth, already involves dozens of small and medium-sized companies that are entering the virtual fences of the stock market. But, at least for now, there are no mergers or integrations to give life to larger companies, those that can mark the change of pace of the system. And there is the risk that a few pebbles in the mechanism of growth (the increase in interest rates, the pressure of the exchange rate and the protectionist threats coming from the USA) could freeze the process, which is still very tentative. And so, behind the statistics that signal the recovery of industry under the push of international demand, a sense of precariousness continues to hover, the unpleasant sensation of an uncertain future that could wreck a ship, Italian industry has no , solid moorings in which to take refuge in the event of a storm.
