“I fear that a black cloud is gathering over FCA: the disappearance of Sergio Marchionne, the profit warning, the questions about the qualities of the team at the top, undoubtedly orphaned by its leader, are the signals that the group runs the risk of reliving a phase of extremely harmful uncertainty, unless…”. Unless? “We mustn't waste time. The important thing is to move quickly because time runs the risk of playing against you”.
Talk like this Joseph Bertha, economics historian, professor at Bocconi but also a Fiat veteran, keeper of the memory at the Fiat Historical Archive between 1996 and 2002, the years of the first, unfortunate, attempt to marry General Motors. Then, as now, the model of a stand-alone future for the company is under discussion which, after landing in Detroit with Chrysler, is today diametrically different from those times. “But today – he comments – being alone is even more difficult, indeed impossible”. It is the conviction that Berta consolidated after a long study mission to the USA, as a guest of Bill Ford, the heir to an automotive dynasty "which today, in Mr. Ford's words, no longer deals with cars but with mobility, a more complex concept that serves to indicate a revolution that has already taken place, not just announced. I don't even dare to think about the costs and time required to start up an electronic platform like the ones I've seen in Ford from scratch”.
From here the need to hurry. “In six months the situation could be difficult. Marchionne carried out the mission he set for himself: cancel the debt and leave a financially strong but dysfunctional enterprise, all flipped on Jeeps and Rams, with two brands like Fiat and Chrysler in rapid braking”.
Could it have been different?
“Marchionne, in his 14 years at the helm of the group, has performed several miracles, starting with the negotiations with General Motors, in which his exceptional qualities as a negotiator emerged for the first time. Between 2004 and 2007, he revolutionized the company by cutting managers who were unable to deliver results and managed to motivate the environment, already depressed and mortified ”.
Then came America.
“The Great Intuition. Nobody wanted Chrysler and he made an offer that the others couldn't refuse. He brings experience and technology and doesn't spend any money. Here the manager with a human face, sympathetic to the left becomes the villain, determined to revolutionize relations in the factories. I asked him the reason for certain choices marked by intransigence. The problem is that the Americans made this agreement on the condition that Italy and America operate in perfect parity and transparency. Factories have to work the same way."
In the end, judging by the results, he was right.
“But not completely. He failed to hit the two operations that would have really made his dream come true. The first concerns Opel. The initial design conceived by Marchionne, a great visionary, foresaw a three-pronged alliance of which Opel, at the time a big fan of the GM house, would be part of it, together with Fiat and Chrysler. If successful, a group of 6 million vehicles, both American and European, would be born with a strong presence in the market and in technologies. But Angela Merkel, under the pressure of German industry, including the union, said no. The alliance with Obama was not enough to convince the German corporate. And Opel ended up in an abyss from which it only came out when Carlos Tavares of PSA was offered an opportunity similar to the one Marchionne asked for”.
By the way, could that drawing be revived today in PSA?
“I read that Tavares said he was willing to talk again about an alliance with FCA, which has been discussed several times. It would be an interesting prospect were it not for the fact that there is a large shareholding in Peugeot Chinese. I don't think Trump can accept that."
Even if the trade war may not break out in the end…
“It is early to understand the scope of a possible agreement which is certainly dear to Merkel and which can count on the support of the Big Americans, who have no interest in starting a confrontation today, in a moment of growing difficulties in the sector , engaged in the search for synergies to avoid suicide expenses. It is an agreement sponsored by Merkel in the interest of German manufacturers. We will see".
Does the solution for FCA come from Europe?
“It is possible but, except for Psa, I don't see possible partners. Difficult to pass through Asia, unless partial agreements. But China is cut off, given the political situation".
Destiny always passes through the USA, in short.
“As it was clear to Machionne that in 2015 he attempted his masterpiece: the wedding with Gm. First there he tried all-out negotiation, involving not only the company but also the stakeholders, starting with the union. Then, given the impasse, he caressed the great adventure: no longer a manager but an entrepreneur capable of bringing together the forces necessary to launch a takeover bid on larger companies, such as General Motors. However, the operation was stopped and from that moment Marchionne was a more tired, almost bored man. With a single company able to partially provide the stimuli that this exceptional man, sick of work as well as too much smoke, needed: always on the plane, sleeping a few hours a night, maybe right on the plane without even knowing if it was day or night”.
