Write down these percentage numbers and good luck playing them in the Lotto: -2,3%, -0,5%, +2%, +7,5% and +3%. These are the economic performances that the most accredited research centers attribute to the Italian GDP and then, gradually, to those of the 17-member Europe, the USA, China and the whole world for the current year.
In other words: deep recession for Italy, even if the greatest peak seems to be behind us for a few weeks, a slightly lighter recession but still a recession for Europe (even if Germany is out of it), good growth for the USA, a slowdown in progress but still growth super for China, down but in a trend that remains positive for world GDP, which is affected by the crisis in the Eurozone and the slowdown in emerging countries. Let us repeat once again the GDP forecasts for 2012: -2,3% for Italy, -0,5% for Europe of 17, +2% for the USA, +7,5% for China and + 3% for the world.
Next year should go a little better and it can legitimately be hoped that the great Italian recession will now begin to slowly subside to end up in the final months of 2013. But what is most impressive is the different growth speed of the various areas of the world with which Italy has to compete.
If he wins the elections and is called to govern, Pierluigi Bersani will have to move Italy: recapture growth, forgotten for too many years, without betraying European rigor and commitments. Winning this challenge will be more difficult than beating Renzi. This is why it would be nice if, after the primaries, the Democratic Party also commented on those five numbers that tell the different faces of the crisis and suggested some sensible recipe for grasping the dream of growth in Italy as well answering these two simple questions:
1) is the battle for growth played out only in Italy or does it postulate a European development strategy, and on what basis?
2) to shake the dead Italian millstone and immediately reap results in terms of growth, in addition to the necessary fight against tax evasion, there is a better recipe than the drastic cut in taxes on labor and companies financed by a corresponding cut in public spending unproductive?
After the empty speaking tournaments that have always accompanied electoral campaigns and in the face of the flood of sterile slogans that pollute current politics, a few numbers would be good for your health. If anyone remembered that in absolute value, the Italian GDP returns this year to the 1.600 billion dollars of 2001 that would be even better.
