MPS, MEDIOBANCA HURRY UP THE FOUNDATION. COWBOY BERNANKE LASSOES THE BULL
Brilliant start, lively progression. Finish under braking, as happens to an athlete caught in cramps near the finish line. Here, in summary, are the stages of a three-stage financial day. In order: a) the extraordinary operation of bank financing launched by the ECB; b) the review at rise in US GDP in the third trimester; c) Ben Bernanke's hearing to the US Congress.
It is better to start from this latest news, which conditioned the end of the European Stock Exchanges and the outcome of the session on Wall Street downwards. Indeed, in the last 20 minutes, the FtseMib index of the Milan Stock Exchange wiped out a gain that exceeded 1% and closed in parity. The London Stock Exchange fell by 0,9%, Paris closed unchanged, Frankfurt -0,4%.
In New York the Dow Jones fell by 0,41%, S&P -0,45%. The Nasdaq, after having passed the peak of 2000 points for the first time since December 3, closed down at -0,67%. Finally, the long wave of the decline affects Tokyo -0,28%, Hong Kong -0,61%.
When a central banker speaks, the "things not said" sometimes matter more than the things actually said. This is what happened yesterday on the occasion of Ben Bernanke's hearing in the US Congress. The Fed chairman confirmed that rates will remain low between now and 2013 inclusive. Close to zero. He then added that the economy is improving, despite the tensions on the price of petrol, also thanks to growing consumption due to greater employment. But Bernanke himself made no mention of the prospect of a possible "quantitative easing", an eventuality that is not even foreseen in the minutes of the Fed relating to the January meeting. In short, no oxygen injection to the financial markets which immediately shut down, confirming that big finance has now become addicted to the monetary "drug": not a good sign.
In the morning, the market was driven higher by the banks, galvanized by the outcome of Ltro 2, the ECB's financing operation. The Central Bank has allocated 530 billion euros to 800 banks. On 21 December, the first operation of this type (three-year tap repurchase agreements at 1%) had injected 489 billion euros of liquidity into the European banking system, responding to requests from 523 banks.
The most important effect of the refinancing was seen on the BTPs. The 5,16-year yield fell to 18% (-334 basis points). The spread with the German Bund fell to 2 points, a new low since 2011 September 2,06. Meanwhile, the two-year BTP fell to 2010%, the lowest since November XNUMX and below the yield of the Spanish bond.
The US GDP figure, released in the afternoon, had surprised economists with growth of 2011% in the fourth quarter of 3, against an average forecast of +2,8%. A new confirmation of the US recovery is expected today. In fact, the data on manufacturing activity is out.
Then, the incoming cold shower primarily depressed industrial and automotive stocks (Stoxx of the sector -1,1%) shortly before the joint press conference of PSA and GM where the news of the industrial and financial alliance was confirmed of the two groups in Europe: GM becomes the second largest shareholder of Peugeot behind the family. But this time, it seems, there are no puts in favor of the Peugeots: the Fiat experience has taught us something. Meanwhile, a bitter ending for Fiat -2,8% in Piazza Affari, a positive balance for Fiat Industrial +1%.
But the virtual list was dominated, as usual, by the banks which had led the rise up to 17 pm, strengthened by the new injection of liquidity from the ECB, to then close with a plus sign but far from the highs of the session. The Mps and Unicredit matches remain at the center of attention.
Don't rush us. We want to sell, but good. In the afternoon, the president of the Gabriello Mancini Foundation issued a note in which, without mentioning them, he replied to the increasingly impatient creditor banks in the face of the hesitations of the Sienese institution to sell 15% of MontePaschi (+3,9%) to reduce the debt. In order to sell "in the most advantageous way", points out the number one of the Foundation, however, it is necessary "the release of the creditor banks on the shares intended for sale". But the constraint of the release, already granted by the main creditors (Mediobanca in the lead) does not convince the banks, worried about the decision of the Sienese shareholders to define the appointments before the sale. In this way, times lengthen unacceptably for banks that do not intend to close the quarter without having solved the problem. In terms of appointments, Alessandro Profumo remains in pole position. Meanwhile Clessidra and Equinox seem willing to proceed together on the negotiation front.
Find confirmation in the meantime in Unicredit (+1,7%) la candidacy of Gian Maria Gros-Pietro to the presidency to replace Dieter Rampl. As an alternative, the candidacy of Fabrizio Saccomanni stands out, the current general manager of the Bank of Italy, who however is held back by the incompatibility rules which are in force for a year after his eventual departure from the central bank. The new Unicredit board will be reduced from the current 23 to 18-19 members. But the Foundations will continue to have eight representatives.
With the exception of Intesa, the other major banks closed in positive territory: Unicredit +1,7%, Banco Popolare +1,4%, Pop.Milano +1,9%, Ubi +1,9%. The star of the day was Luxottica +6% after the fourth quarter results and rosy forecasts for 2012. Weak closure for Eni -0,3% and Enel -0,5%.
