After too long a period of silence, tomorrow Berlusconi will report to the Chambers on the financial crisis that has hit our country in full force. In recent years, the Government had affirmed with certainty that Italy had a more solid position than many other European states and that therefore it could be considered sheltered from the turbulence that was affecting the so-called PIGS, i.e. Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain. Instead we have seen in recent weeks that the "I" in addition to Ireland also included Italy.
The Prime Minister's decision to take matters into his own hands was right. In fact, it was the political turmoil that hit the majority that caused disorientation in operators, which then quickly resulted in distrust of the ability of the current ruling class to give a real change to the Italian economy, putting it back on a solid path of growth. At the point where we are for Berlusconi the problem is to convince the markets and all Italians in general of the current government's ability to actually cut public spending and to enact some reforms capable of giving new impetus to the economy.
So the head of government would be making a serious mistake if he confined himself to generic information, perhaps trying to blame the current situation on the international crisis, the dollar's difficulties, Europe's slowness or even worse, the obscure maneuvers of international speculators that they would have hatched a conspiracy against Italy and its current government.
It takes a truth operation. Toying with the faults of others, which nevertheless exist, would give a further blow to the already low credibility of our Government, which is blamed for the defect of not being able to recognize the true meaning of the current market situation and therefore of having neither the ideas nor the strength to face problems. It would be particularly negative to espouse the conspiracy thesis on the part of international speculation supported by Corriere della Sera and many members of the League.
Speculation which is, as Keynes said, "foam on the crest of a wave", can amplify and speed up the underlying movement of the economy's fundamentals but certainly does not determine the movement itself. Certainly countries with their accounts in order and with a robust growth rate are not being attacked. Indeed it can be said that speculation in recent times has been particularly distracted towards the accumulation of situations of imbalance and towards the amnesia of the Governments that have adopted the Andreottian philosophy of "just making a living".
Contrary to what is commonly believed, it was the sleep of speculators that allowed politicians to accumulate enormous imbalances in public finances. Had the managers of the large pension funds been more active, perhaps politics would have intervened earlier to put the accounts in order. The thesis according to which Germany has planned a fall in the prices of Italian securities to have more room for investors to place its public debt securities at low rates, which in absolute value has reached the amount of the Italian debt, is also laughable.
In reality, the problem is less mysterious than one sometimes thinks. The little boat of Italy has to sail in a stormy sea. And for this very reason, instead of complaining about the weather conditions, we need to act quickly to strengthen the structures and, if possible, guide it out of the point of greatest turbulence. To do this, we need not generic speeches and vague promises about future reforms, but quick and immediately executive decisions.
The things to do are known. We need to restart growth. The latest Final Considerations by Governor Draghi clearly list a series of measures to be taken to overcome the current situation of depression in which Italians have sunk. The joint document of all employers (industry, commerce, banks) together with the trade unions offers the Government a great opportunity to coagulate a broad consensus on a project for profound change in our economic system.
To seize it, Berlusconi must put strong and precise proposals on the plate. In the first place on the costs not only of politics, but of the entire public apparatus, of bureaucracy and of local politics, increasingly subject to oppression of citizens and malfeasance. The problem is not only that of cutting the salaries of parliamentarians, but that of reducing the number of those who make a living from politics, that is, from the enormous amount of parasitic intermediation that the political system has taken over and to which it is tenaciously clinging.
Only in this way will the Government be able to ask all the productive and trade union categories that have asked for a "discontinuity" in economic policy, what they are willing to do on their part to enrich the reforms even with the change in the attitudes of many social categories towards work and participation in the collective effort to increase the country's competitiveness. Without a general and credible project, many categories continue to defend their current positions which often contain small privileges, even if they are increasingly eroded by the crisis. But this, in the absence of a serious and credible political guide, only generates an increase in fear and therefore a more ferocious entrenchment on the habits of the past.
You have to get people out of the den. Make it clear that there is a cohesive ruling class around the goal of growth. If sacrifices are asked, there must be a guarantee that they will be equally distributed, that there will be no protected areas. It's not an easy task. But it is mandatory to try. Certainly Berlusconi risks putting his face on it. But the idea of remaining holed up in Arcore, as many of his advisers also suggested, is not politically sensible because in any case the worsening of the crisis (with the spread towards the Bund exceeding 400 points) would overwhelm him, even if he took refuge in the bunker of his villa.
Of course you have to have the courage to fly high. Promising only to unblock some public works, moreover in rain, is not enough. The way out of the crisis cannot come from public spending but on the contrary from a marked reduction in order to allow for a visible cut in taxes on labor and businesses. This Government has been essentially inactive for many months. Now the last card must be played. If once again he doesn't show himself up to the task, then he will no longer be able to avoid handing over to those who can try to save the country from a financial and economic crisis that risks being much more devastating than that of '92-'93.
