A dark picture emerges from May bulletin of the ECB: estimates on 2012 GDP lowered to -0,2% from -0,1%, on 2013 it goes to +1% from +1,1%, while 2012 inflation is now estimated at 2,3. 1,9% from XNUMX% three months ago. But what becomes even more worrying is the situation of the labor market where estimates indicate an unemployment rate of 2012% in 11 from 10,6% three months ago. “Euro area labor markets continue to weaken. Employment fell in the second half of 2011 and the unemployment rate moved up. Survey data point to further negative developments in the near future“, reads the bulletin.
For the ECB, "together with the consolidation of public finances, growth and its potential in the euro area must be increased through incisive structural reforms”. If the consolidation weighs on growth in the short term, underlines the Eurotower, it nonetheless favors “private investment and growth in the medium term. To strengthen growth in the Eurozone, especially in countries that have lost productivity and need to stimulate it, it is necessary "to strengthen competition in the markets for goods and services and the ability of companies to adjust wages and employment". The ECB recognizes the progress made but calls for more ambitious goals from various governments "in undertaking resolute policies to address significant imbalances and vulnerabilities at the financial, structural and public accounts levels".
For the Eurotower in 2012 we are moving towards a gradual recovery even if a situation of uncertainty persists. The indicators available for the first quarter are in fact consistent with the stabilization of activity at a modest level. The signals coming from the latest economic surveys for the euro area highlight an environment characterized by uncertainty and at the same time, there are indications that the recovery is proceeding on a global scale. Over the long term, the gradual recovery during the year will be favored by foreign demand, by very low short-term interest rates in the area and by all the measures adopted to promote the good functioning of the area's economy.
However, the ECB specifies: “There is nevertheless the expectation that the underlying dynamics of growth will continue to be held back by the residual tensions in some sovereign debt markets of the euro area and by their impact on credit conditions, as well as by the process of balance sheet adjustment in the financial and non-financial sectors and by high unemployment”.
