The economy and unemployment worsen, inflation eases. This is what emerges from the European Central Bank's quarterly survey of economic experts from financial institutions and research centers in the euro area. As usual, it is published in the monthly bulletin, but it does not represent the ECB's forecasts, but rather an average of the expectations among sector technicians.
Le economic estimates compared to 2013, they are still decreasing: now the experts predict a 0,4% recession in the Eurozone's GDP, which will be followed by +1% in 2014 and +1,6% in 2015. In the previous survey, there was talk of a growth zero on 2013 and +1,1% in 2014.
As for the rate unemployment, private analysts in the euro area expect an average of 12,3% this year, down slightly to 12,2% in 2014 and 11,6% in 2015. Only three months ago they estimated a rate of 12,1 .2013% on 11,9 and 2014% on 11,2, with a decrease to 2015% on XNUMX.
“The labor markets in the euro area have remained weak – writes the ECB in its bulletin –, with the persistence of marked differences between countries. The most recent survey data point to further job losses and rising unemployment in the near future.
However, the central institute also speaks of a possible improvement in the dynamics: "The lower increase in the number of unemployed compared to the trends at the end of 2011 and the beginning of 2012 seems to suggest an attenuation of the rate of growth of unemployment".
However, “survey indicators point to further job losses in the first quarter of 2013 and early second quarter, in both manufacturing and services.
Finally, inflation: on average, experts forecast a figure of 1,7% in 2013 and 1,6% in 2014, against the previous estimate of 1,8% for both years. The ECB's objective is to have an inflation rate lower than but close to 2% per annum, to avoid the risk of incurring a deflationary spiral.
The main tool for increasing inflation is the increase in the money supply, which central banks produce by reducing interest rates. Last week the ECB cut rates in the euro area by a quarter of a point, to an all-time low of 0,50 percent. Since then, he has repeatedly signaled the possibility of further cuts, should conditions require it.
“The Governing Council will monitor very closely any new information on economic and monetary developments and assess any impact on the outlook for price stability,” the institution said in its latest bulletin.
