More growth, less inflation. And expansionary monetary policy is not discussed, at least for the moment. This is what emerges from the last meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank.
In detail, the technicians of ECB have raised forecasts on economic growth in the euro area, bringing them to 1,9% for this year, 1,8% for 2018 and 1,7% for 2019. All three values are one decimal point more than three months ago estimates .
In reverse, inflation estimates in the Eurozone have been revised downwards euro: at 1,5% in 2017, at 1,3% in 2018 and at 1,6% in 2019. Last March the forecasts were +1,7% for this year, +1,6% respectively % for next year and +1,7% for 2019. The ECB's official objective is to achieve an inflation rate below but close to 2%.
The Governing Council of the Eurotower notes a “stronger” euro area recovery momentum which could lead to faster growth than previously expected while "the set of risks" weighing on the economy "now appears to be balanced overall". This is the comment of the president of the ECB, Mario Draghi.
As regards monetary policy measures, the central bank has confirmed interest rates always at historic lows in the euro area. In particular, the rate on the main refinancing remains at zero, at 0,25% that on marginal transactions and at -0,40% that on deposits parked by banks with the ECB.
As regards instead the Qe, will continue until the end of the year with the current pace of securities purchases, amounting to 60 billion euros per month. “It seems to me that two members of the board made observations on the implications of the purchases of securities – continued Draghi – but there was no discussion of line normalization".
Conversely, "if the outlook becomes less favourable," the board statement reads, "or if financial conditions prove inconsistent with further progress toward a lasting adjustment in the inflation profile, the Governing Council is ready to increase the program in terms of size and/or duration".
