Bad news from the Bank of Italy, which cuts the Italian GDP growth estimates for this year and for 2017. According to Via Nazionale, gross domestic product will increase by 2016% in 1,1, to then accelerate to 1,2%. .2017% in both 2018 and 1,5. In January, Bank of Italy had forecast growth of 1,4% for this year and XNUMX% for next.
“The estimate has been revised downwards, reflecting above all a weaker performance of the world economy – explains the Italian Central Bank – The forecast picture is affected by the weakness of the international scenario, which above all reflects the slowdown of emerging economies, in line with the assessments most recent international organisations”.
In the projections for Italy in the next three years elaborated by the economists of the Bank of Italy as part of the coordinated exercise of the Eurosystem, it is therefore highlighted that "the main factors of uncertainty weighing on this scenario are of a global nature: a continuation of the phase of weakness of the emerging economies and a less intense recovery of the advanced ones could hold back international trade for longer than anticipated here; an aggravation of geopolitical tensions could translate into an increase in the volatility of financial markets and risk premiums”.
In this context, underlines Bankitalia, "Italy's growth would be driven above all by internal demand". In detail, specifies Via Nazionale, "domestic demand would be supported by the acceleration of consumption, favored by the progressive improvement of conditions on the labor market and the recovery of investments, which would benefit from favorable financial conditions and, for the current year, of the incentives to spend on capital goods introduced in the latest stability law”.
The Bank of Italy concludes by stating that "greater growth of the internal components could be associated with the interventions outlined in the programmatic framework presented in the 2016 Economic and Financial Document, but an assessment of their effects will be possible after the definition of the details of the individual measures" .
