The economic fundamentals of Italy and Germany would not justify the growth, which began in the summer of 2011, of the Btp/Bund differential which, amid ups and downs, reached the current 427 points, but rather, considering the fundamental macroeconomic and fiscal determinants (economic growth, fiscal conditions, financial risks), the "right" spread should be around 200 points.
To affirm it is a study produced by the Bank of Italy, number 128 of the series "Economic and financial issues", which reveals that the increase in the spread is largely attributable to ongoing contagion phenomena in the Eurozone, and would therefore be a reflection of fears about the effective solidity of the single currency.
In the meantime, while with Monti and Hollande, today in Rome, the dynamic succession of bilaterals continues, and the European stock exchanges proceed with discontinuous trends, expectations are growing for the new executive of the European Central Bank, scheduled for Thursday, which should announce the measures chosen to counter the crisis and strengthen the banking sector and the monetary union.
