The single universal check is a "promising" tool, which could guarantee "a significant degree of progressiveness and at the same time a reduction of situations of poverty trap and/or disincentive to work inherent in current legislation". The Bank of Italy writes it in an occasional paper dedicated to the new subsidy, explaining that the judgment refers to a simulation and not to the texts of the law (still provisional).
WHAT POINT ARE WE AT
With a decree approved at the end of July, Parliament brought forward the single allowance to the second half of this year, which will become fully operational on 2022 January XNUMX, replacing many of the current forms of support for families with children. There bridging solution, in force until 31 December 2021, is intended for those who have so far been excluded from family allowances, i.e. self-employed workers, VAT numbers and the unemployed. In the meantime, the government must work on legislative decrees, to be published by the end of the year to precisely establish beneficiaries, amounts, technical aspects and any additional allocations. The minimum goal is to ensure that no one takes less than they have collected so far.
WHAT WE KNOW SO FAR ABOUT THE SINGLE CHECK
The only certainty at the moment is that the single allowance will be disbursed every month by INPS and that its value will depend on two factors: the ISEE and the number of dependent children. There is no incompatibility with the basic income, but the grillina measure should in turn be corrected in the coming months (or at least, this is the intention announced by Mario Draghi, while Lega and Italia Viva continue to ask for its abolition by untying its part on active employment policies and maintaining support for the fight against poverty).
THE BANKITALIA SIMULATION
For the rest, the exact contents of the single universal check are yet to be specified. The Bank of Italy simulation - which "is not a proposal", underline the authors of the study - assumes a subsidy made up of three elements:
- a basic AUU (the same for each child of the same age group and decreasing as the ISEE increases, from a certain level onwards);
- an increase for large families;
- an increase linked to the working status of the parents.
Furthermore, the birth of the new instrument should be accompanied by "the almost complete elimination of family unit allowances, a sharp reduction in deductions for dependent children and the cancellation of the baby bonus and of the family unit allowance for households with at least three children minors”, in addition to the rethinking of the basic income.
SOME NUMBERS
In the Via Nazionale simulation, the single check would cost 19,6 billion a year (of which two-thirds covered with the cancellation of the existing measures) and would affect 6,3 million families, who would receive around 1.908 euros a year for each child, i.e. 159 euros per month.
THE EFFECTS ON INEQUALITIES…
With a maxi-subsidy of this type, "income inequality and absolute poverty are reduced, as natural given the conspicuous resources allocated to low-income families - continues the Bank of Italy - In our estimates, families in absolute poverty would be reduced by about 165 and the reduction in child poverty would be even more significant".
…AND THOSE AT WORK
As regards the repercussions on the world of work, "with the introduction of the AUU (as hypothesized in this work) not only would female participation not be discouraged, as rightly feared by many observers, but it would even be stimulated overall", because , "despite the adoption of the Isee, after the reform, from a financial point of view, it would be relatively more convenient to have an additional income earner in the family compared to the status quo".
THE BUDGET (HYPOTHETICAL)
In summary, therefore, "a careful modulation of the basic allowance and its surcharges - concludes Bankitalia - would be capable of improving the incentives for job offers for families with medium-low incomes and assets and at the same time of achieving remarkable results from a redistributive point of view, i.e. a strong reduction of inequality and of individuals in absolute poverty and a substantial elimination of the poor families penalized by the reform".
