The Brexit effect will also be felt in Italy. The United Kingdom's exit from the European Union could have "a non-negligible but limited effect on Italy's GDP" and the consequences "are still hypothetical".
This was stated by the Bank of Italy in the economic bulletin published today. According to the document, Via Nazionale expects a drop in business in Great Britain in the coming months which will be transmitted to our country "through commercial exchanges or a review of the investment plans of companies active on the British market" Despite this, Bank of Italy underlines that “the repercussions for the Italian economy deriving from the outcome of the referendum on the United Kingdom's exit from the European Union «should be relatively contained in comparison with our partners».
The growth of our GDP "could be just under 1 percent this year and around 1% next", while the recovery "continues at a more moderate pace".
A forecast that also takes into consideration the information on the second quarter which speaks of a lower increase than that of the previous three months. The GDP, after a growth of 0,3% in the first quarter, according to our assessments, would have slowed down slightly in the spring months.
However, Bank of Italy underlines that the growth archived in the first quarter of 2016 represents "the fifth consecutive quarter" with the plus sign, but "is still 8,5 percentage points below the cyclical peak reached at the beginning of 2008".
