The impact of the coronavirus emergency on the Italian economy will be heavy - a week of lockdown costs the country 9 billion GDP -, but households, businesses and banks are more solid than in the last crisis, that of 2012, and will be able to take the blow better. The sign of hope comes from Bank of Italy, which in his last economic bulletin – while not denying the forecasts of the IMF – looks to the future of the country trying to give a less catastrophic reading than those circulated in recent weeks.
According to Via Nazionale, the families are facing the new crisis “with greater financial strength compared to what they had on the eve of the sovereign debt crisis”. Consequently, even if "the impact of the pandemic on incomes can be significant", it is still "mitigated by the low debt, the very low level of interest rates and the contrast measures implemented by the authorities".
Also businesses, underlines Bankitalia, are facing the corona-crisis “starting from a more solid financial structure compared to the start of the previous recession”.
A similar argument also applies to the banks Italians, who "are facing the deterioration of the economy" linked to the coronavirus "starting from stronger capital and liquidity conditions than in the past and having a better quality of assets”.
Palazzo Koch also underlines that “in the last quarter of 2019 the flow of new non-performing loans in relation to total loans has remained stable” and that “the deterioration rate of loans is at historically very low levels for both households and businesses”.
However, despite these signals, it is undeniable that the general situation remains dramatic. "From the information collected through the Bank's territorial network - it is still read in the economic bulletin of the central bank - it emerges that in the tertiary sector the containment measures have the turnover of a large part of the non-food retail trade was practically eliminated, of hotels, bars and restaurants and of companies operating in the tourism sector and that construction activities have stopped".
Not only that: “Similar signals – continue the technicians of the Bank of Italy – can be deduced for spending on services by the Confcommercio consumption indicator, which decreased starting from February, following the sharp drop in demand in the hospitality and hotel sectors”.
