The 2013 metaphor, which replaces the more ominous one of "dead leaves in autumn" used a year earlier, is of a man walking precariously on a rope, in a great hurry to cover it quickly to avoid falling over the precipice. The Lombard economy, which represents over a fifth of the national GDP (and an even greater value as regards important items such as banking and exports), continues to struggle, still risks falling, but is doing everything possible to orient itself towards a slow recovery.
The path, as emerges from the annual report on regional economies presented today by the Bank of Italy in Milan, is still long and to date, analyzing 2012 and the beginning of 2013, still characterized more by shadows than by lights. “There is no recovery this year – he explains pragmatically Giuseppe Sopranzetti, general manager of Bankitalia in Lombardy – and the only positive real economy data, which allows us to see the glass half full even if it has also slowed down, is that of exports, which continues to support the region's activity”.
While in fact industrial production falls (especially of small businesses, after the illusory leap at the end of 2012), credit to businesses and households continues to shrink, the construction sector collapses (-5,7%, -0,6% in 2011), business bankruptcies almost doubled compared to 2008, employment is stable but unemployment is declining sharply (-7,9% in the fourth quarter of 2012, -8,7% in the first quarter of 2013) due to the greater supply of labour, services and innovation are holding up but losing ground, the only element that continues to pull the locomotive of Italy are exports.
However, these in turn, and for the first time since the beginning of the recession, slow down significantly, and above all are saved only and exclusively by the demand from non-EU countries: in 2011 the exchange of goods with foreign countries grew by 10,8%, in 2012 by only 3,7%, and moreover with a negative sign in the final part of the year. Exports to the EU fell by 1,4% on 2011, mainly affected by the declines recorded in Germany and France (on the other hand they rise in countries outside the single currency), while the sales in countries outside the Union grew by 10,1%, mainly driven by the United States (almost doubled compared to 2011) and Switzerland. Japan stable, while they arrive not too encouraging signals from the thriving Bric market: Sales of goods in Russia and Brazil increased by 5,7 and 1,9%, but in China and India decreased by 6 and 3,3% for the first time.
Given even more worrying if you think that exports of goods outside Europe now make up almost half of the regional total. On the other hand, the data on the exchange of business services is more reassuring, which in Italy continues to grow even if it is still far from that of goods and compared to the average of European competitors: in Lombardy, on average 2009-2011, exports of business services were 40,3% of the Italian ones, almost double the weight of the region on the national GDP in the same period (21%), and also their incidence on the regional GDP is well above the national average values (3,9% against 2%).
And if the real economy is struggling to recover, banking activity is not doing better: coinciding with the tensions that characterized the sovereign debt markets and with the weakness of economic activity, in the end of 2011 bank loans to Lombard customers began to slow down, until they contracted starting from October 2012 (the last data for March speaks of a -1,2%). In the first months of 2013 – for the first time since the financial crisis of 2008-09 – bank lending to households decreased consumers in the region (-0,1% in March, 0,4% in 2012), but it is even worse for businesses: after growth of 2% in 2011, in 2012 the credit disbursed by banks and financial companies to the productive sector decreased by 3,1% (trend confirmed in 2013).
The novelty, however, is that one reports reduction, albeit more limited, also for companies deemed financially sound. The only fact that can show the glass as half full, like exports in the real economy, is that of collection and savings: retail funding from customers residing in the region showed a progressive recovery during 2012 (+7,2% in 2012; -0,3% in 2011). This trend was influenced by both the dynamics of deposits, increased by 8,3%, and that of bank bonds, which grew by 4,8%. In the first quarter of the current year, total funding continued to increase (4,2% in March), supported by the expansion of customer deposits (7,8%). The financial savings of consumer households invested in securities and held in custody with banks also increased slightly (2% in 2012), after the decline recorded in 2011.
More shadows than lights, therefore, but once again the confirmation that no region like Lombardy is capable of towing Italy: "It should be noted - Sopranzetti said again - the entrepreneurial skill with which it was possible to keep the expor standingt. In a context of international crisis, with internal demand and the collapsing European market, entrepreneurs from Lombardy have been good at finding this lifeline”. Will it be enough to not fall into the ravine?
