The Bank of Italy sees a more solid recovery for Italy thanks to the recent government reforms, but Renzi sticks with the part of the maneuver dedicated to the abolition of the Tasi. This is essentially what emerges from the Economic Bulletin, according to which the tax reduction initiated by the Government “is consistent with the need to reduce the high tax burden which is a brake on growth. The most directly effective interventions for the purpose of increasing the potential of the economy are those to reduce the load on the factors of production”. Via Nazionale, which in the past had expressed itself in favor of a moderate tax on the house, in line with other European countries, in the same Bulletin instead expresses skepticism about the elimination of the tax on the first home decided by the Government: “It could have limited effects on consumption”.
In any case, according to Bankitalia, the prospects for the Italian economy are improving: “La consumption recovery and the gradual restart of investments, after years of decline in domestic demand, are contributing to the expansion of the product”. The economy, explains the Bulletin, since the beginning of the year "has resumed growth at a rate of around 1,5% on an annual basis" and more recent signals indicate that the third quarter will also show the same pace. Via Nazionale therefore promotes the update of the Government's estimate of GDP included in Def (+0,9% from the previous +0,7%). The figure, he says, is consistent with the trend of the economic situation which shows, for domestic demand, "a more favorable picture than previously expected".
To particularly benefit from the interventions of the Government is the employment growth, which travels "at a significant pace" this year "thanks to recent government measures on the subject of tax relief and labor market reform". "The contribution relief - argues the Bulletin issued today - on new employees with permanent contracts and, to a lesser extent, the new discipline of individual dismissal provided for by the Jobs Act have led to a significant recomposition of hiring in favor of stable contractual forms". The Bulletin adds that the unemployment rate has returned to falling and that there is cautious optimism on the part of businesses regarding employment.
Bankitalia also intervened in the case of the Volkswagen, which inevitably brought a new element of uncertainty to the European economies as well as having affected the performance of the stock exchanges and the climate of confidence in Germany. The document issued by the central institution writes that it is difficult to quantify today the possible repercussions of the scandal of the house of Wolfsburg. “They will depend on the effects on the auto sector as a whole, which has so far contributed significantly to the cyclical recovery, on the German industry and related industries in the various countries, as well as on the expectations of investors and consumers”.
The recent scandal Volkswagen, adds the Bulletin, “could have repercussions on Italian companies operating in the components sector; the extent of these repercussions will depend on the consequences of the affair on the German automotive sector as a whole. There Germany it constitutes the target market of between 20 and 25% of the Italian automotive supply chain”. The report also cites Anfia data according to which in 2014 Volkswagen purchased components produced by Italian companies for 1,5 billion (equal to 7,7% of the total exports of the supply chain).
