Wanting to use a football metaphor, we could say that by now "the bench is getting shorter and shorter”. And not because of injuries or the winter transfer season, but because, day by day, the players who decide to take to the field and play the game of “banking risk” are increasing more and more.
Between attackers and defenders, predators and prey, it is more difficult to count who is inside than who has remained outside and has chosen to quarantine themselves to avoid being infected by that virus. risk fever that has been filling the front pages of newspapers for months. To date, in fact, there are only three, perhaps four, banks that are not buying or have not been the object of any offer, remaining - for different reasons - on the margins of a consolidation process which seems unstoppable. We are talking about Intesa Sanpaolo, Banca Mediolanum e Finecobank, who in the last few hours have reiterated their desire not to participate in the ongoing “M&A” championship and watch the games comfortably seated in an armchair in front of the TV. The triangular could become a quadrangular also considering General Bank, which however took to the field in the pre-season friendlies with the offer of almost 100 million launched on 16 September 2024 on Intermonte, whose acceptance period concluded successfully, leading to the delisting of the Milanese broker's stock.
Banking Risk: Who Plays?
Kicking off is Unicredit, first with the climb up to 28% between shares and derivatives of Commerzbank then with the takeover bid of over 10 billion on Bank Bpm. The latter in turn launches an offer of 6,20 euros per share on Anima and buy 5% of Monte dei Paschi for approximately 370 million euros. As part of the same operation, which saw the Mef sell a total share of 15,7% of the Sienese bank, they also purchased Anima (3% plus 1% already in hand), Caltagirone and Dolphin (3,7% each).
The game continues and becomes even more intense, between exceptional preys and very intricate shareholder crossovers. We arrive at January 24, the day in which, early in the morning, MPS surprises the market and launches a totalitarian takeover bid of 13,3 billion on Mediobanca which also involves the generals. And it is at this point that the plot thickens: Caltagirone and Dolphin in fact, they own stakes in both banks, but also in the Lion company. Delfin holds 9,8% of Mps, 19,8% of Mediobanca and 9,9% of Generali. Caltagirone owns 5% of Monte dei Paschi, 5,5% of Mediobanca and 6,92% of Generali. Mediobanca is in turn the largest shareholder of the insurance company with a 13,1% share. And if we want to complicate things even further, we must also take into account that Caltagirone holds shares in Banco Bpm (2%) and Anima (3,46%), which in turn have, respectively, 5% and 3,99% of Monte dei Paschi.
Meanwhile, another blow arrives, this time in the field of managed savings: Generali announces a joint venture with Natixis aimed at creating a asset management champion with 2 trillion in assets under management, an operation that however makes the Government and especially the two partners Caltagirone and Delfin turn up their noses. At this point, the Mps-Mediobanca-Generali game becomes a sort of match in itself, in which Unicredit also decides to participate, buying 4,1% of the first Italian insurance institute.
Is it over? Not in your dreams. Because on Thursday, February 6, the second Italian insurance group also enters the game: Unipol which holds 24% of Bper and 19% of Popular of Sondrio. Yesterday evening, in fact, Bper has launched a takeover bid for 9,527 euros per share on the Valtellina bank, for a total valuation of 4,32 billion euros.
Finally, there is another operation not to be forgotten: the voluntary takeover bid on Illimity Bank from 3,55 euros per share launched by Bank Ifis about a month ago.
READ MORE: Banking Risk: The 4 Months That Shook Up Italian Finance
Banking Risk: Who's Left Out?
Interested spectator of the current match is Intesa Sanpaolo, with CEO Carlo Messina repeatedly playing the role of “expert commentator”, intervening to give his opinion on the reorganization. As when he stated that “Governments should stay out of the banking game”, while underlining the desire of the leading Italian bank to stay away from the current chaos: “We have no intention of participating in the consolidation in Italy. We will stay far away from this confusion that is on the market", Messina reiterated a few days ago, explaining that also for antitrust reasons it would be difficult to carry out operations capable of creating value. "We have no intention of doing any type of M&A in Italy", said the banker, who also ruled out smaller acquisitions in asset management, closing the door in the face of any speculation: "For Intesa Sanpaolo I don't see any kind of acquisition in the future'”. “When you run an organization like ours, with 100 employees, you have to be clear about the direction you’re going in,” he concluded.
There is also in the stands Banca Mediolanum, with CEO Massimo Doris commenting on Citi's study on Thursday, which in recent days had once again hypothesized a merger between the institute and Mediobanca. "My desk is full of proposals from investment bankers made several times with hypotheses of mergers of Banca Mediolanum". On the other hand, the entrepreneur highlighted, "there's nothing on the table” and Banca Mediolanum will continue to grow organically.
However, Banca Mediolanum is also a historical member of Piazzetta Cuccia, with a 3,49% stake entirely vested in the consultation agreement. In this context, Doris revealed that he was taken by surprise (“a nice surprise”, he said) by the takeover bid launched by MPS on Mediobanca. This is “an important operation, but it is not I who decide whether to join or not, but the boards of directors who must decide on the issue”, Doris said, passing the ball to the boards of directors of Mediolanum Vita and Banca Mediolanum, “because the stake is divided between these two companies”.
And to complete the ranks of more or less interested spectators, there is Finecobank, also outside the banking risk, also without any desire to enter it: "Our positioning is so extraordinary that we don't need to go through a consolidation process to grow“, said the bank's CEO Alessandro Foti during the press conference on the 2024 results. “The collections we make every year are equivalent to the acquisition of a small bank,” he added.
