Mps-Mediobanca. But also Unicredit Commerzbank, Unicredit - Banco Bpm, Banco-Bpm-Soul. It's still: Banca Ifis-Illimity and Banca Generali-Intermonte. On background Generali, with its joint venture with Natixis for the creation of the second European asset management hub, but also with the shareholder entanglements linked to the takeover bid that stunned the market on Friday.
Between prey and predators, in short, such a ferment had never been seen in Italy, not even in the roaring nineties. The subjects involved? Commercial banks, investment banks, savings managers, insurance companies. So much so that talking about a simple bank risk it seems reductive. The financial structure is now at stake homegrown, with a shared goal: that consolidation of credit that has often been hoped for by Europe, which however is too inward-looking to favor it. But if the institutions are standing still, the companies have decided to go it alone.
Banking Risk: Orcel, Caltagirone and Delfin are the absolute protagonists
Until a few days ago we would have had no doubts. In the adrenaline-filled thriller that has become the Italian banking risk, the role of the leading actor would have been played by Andrew Orcel, ceo of Unicredit and deal maker among the most esteemed in Europe, which with the two operations launched first on Commerzbank and then on Banco Bpm has disrupted the market, officially giving the go-ahead in Italy to M&A fever. In the last few days, however, the plot has further thickened, so much so that two other actors have emerged who could immediately aspire to the role of co-protagonists: the real estate agent Francesco Gaetano Caltagirone , Dolphin of the Del Vecchio family. The reason? A series of extremely intricate stock crossovers.
Let's start from the last match, the one that started on Friday between Mediobanca and Mps. Caltagirone and Delfin own shares in both banks, but also in Generali. Delfin in fact holds 9,8% of Mps, Caltagirone 5% (the largest shareholder is the Treasury with 11%). Both groups are shareholders of Mediobanca: Delfin with 19,8%, Caltagirone with 5,5%. And again: Mediobanca is the largest shareholder of Generali with 13,1% and in the shareholding of the Lion there are also Delfin (9,9%) and the Caltagirone group (6,92%).
But that's not all, because Caltagirone also owns shares in Bpm bank (2%) and Anima (3,46%), which in turn hold, respectively, 5% and 3,99% of Monte dei Paschi after an operation carried out last November 14th.
Not to mention that, if the difficult operation between MPS and Mediobanca were to succeed, perhaps Unicredit it might have a better chance of making it on Banco Bpm, which at that point would remain outside the long-awaited third Italian hub on which the Government has been banking for some time.
This, at least for now, is the summary of the film about the reorganization of the Italian banking system.
Mps' shock offer on Mediobanca
Until a few years ago, no one could have ever imagined such an operation. In the early morning of Friday Monte dei Paschi launched a voluntary public exchange offer of 13,3 billion on all the shares of Mediobanca, unleashing a real earthquake at the top levels of Italian finance. If the deal goes through, the marriage between MPS and Mediobanca would combine the commercial presence of the Tuscan bank in the territory with the expertise of Piazzetta Cuccia in investment banking and savings management. But above all, it would lead to the birth of the long-awaited third banking hub.
The reaction was immediate MY BAG, with the two stocks that during the session always remained at the top (Mediobanca) and at the bottom (Mps) of the Ftse Mib, a trend that testifies to the restlessness of investors and de facto transforms the 5% premium put on the table by the Sienese bank into a discount of the offer compared to the stock market prices. Not very convinced the analysts, who during a scorching Friday have raised several doubts about the deal and talked about synergies that are difficult to identify. The move, however, did not please the CEO of Mediobanca Alberto Nagel at all, who branded the takeover bid as "not agreed upon and hostile". Those who seem to appreciate it are the Government: the line is to let the "free market" do its thing, a courtesy that the free market has not enjoyed in other transactions, first and foremost the one between Unicredit and Banco Bpm.
In the background of an operation that has shaken the Italian market there is also Generali, which according to many would be the real objective of the Caltagirone-Delfin axis, opposed among other things to the joint venture with Natixis announced Tuesday by the Lion which will create “one of the largest global champions with 1.900 trillion in assets under management, ninth in the world for AUM and leader in asset management in Europe”.
Banking Risk: Unicredit Opens the Dance with Commerzbank and Banco Bpm
In the surroundings of Piazza Gae Aulenti they say that Andrea Orcell has been eating bread and M&A since he was a child. And looking at his CV and the initiatives of the last few months, it is not hard to believe. In fact, many wondered why, after more than four years at the helm of unicredit, had not yet moved, also because in the meantime the bank had been described as close to marriage on countless occasions. First with Mps, the only concrete hypothesis until Orcel decided to leave the table with the Government, then with Mediobanca, with Société Générale and so on. On 11 September 2024, the turning point: leaving the whole of Europe speechless, Unicredit announced that it had purchased 9% of Commerzbank, then became 21% and finally, the 28%. At least for now, we will see what the ECB will say between February and March. An unofficial climb well regarded by the European institutions, officially opposed by the Berlin government and by the board of directors of the German bank, with CEO Bettina Orlopp who a few days ago reportedly refused a meeting with Orcel to discuss a possible merger.
We'll talk about the matter again later the German elections of February 23, but in the meantime Unicredit has not remained with its hands tied, and with one eye on internationalization and another on consolidation, on November 25, 2024 it launched a total takeover bid of 10,1 billion euros on Banco Bpm, the third largest bank in the country. Another unexpected move, another move that has sparked mixed reactions, with CEO Giuseppe Castagna intent on selling his skin dearly and the Italian government, which had other plans for Banco Bpm (read third pole with Mps), turning up its nose and thinking about the possible use of the golden power. How will it end? Orcel shows confidence in both operations and moves forward, hoping to increase its market share in Italy and convince the government that will be born in Germany to give the wedding with Commerz a chance.By the end of 2025 Unicredit will be much bigger thanks to M&A operations,” said Orcel, attributing to this scenario “more than 50% of the possibilities”.
Banco Bpm on Anima and Mps
Just a few weeks before ending up in Unicredit's sights, the bank led by Giuseppe Castagna had made its move: a takeover bid worth 1,58 billion, 6,2 euros per share, on Soul, of which it already owns 22,8%, through its subsidiary Banco Bpm Vita. Objective: to bring back home the managed savings of Anima and delist it. The operation has received the green light from the Government which has made it known that will not exercise special powers, while waiting for the approval of Consob and Ivass, but above all the evaluation of the ECB on the Danish Compromise. In the meantime, the market waits a possible relaunch, both because Anima in Borsa is steadily above the OPA price (it is at 6,6 euros), and because raising the stakes would also increase the implicit valuation of Banco Bpm. One of the countermoves that, together with the increase in dividends, Castagna would have in mind to resist the court of Unicredit.
But there is not only Anima: on November 14, Banco Bpm decided to break the ice and has 5% of Monte dei Paschi di Siena bought by the Treasury for approximately 370 million euros. A move that not only strengthened its position on MPS, but that, thanks to the takeover bid on Anima with which the Sienese bank has an important distribution agreement, could also open up new synergies. As part of the same operation that saw the Mef sell a total share of 15% of Monte, they also purchased Anima (3% plus 1% already in hand), Caltagirone and Delfin (3,7% each).
Banca Ifis on Illimity
Unlike her colleagues, Bank Ifis He waited until the New Year to take action and on January 8th he launched aVoluntary takeover bid on Illimity Bank from 3,55 euros per share in a mixed deal that includes 0,10 newly issued Banca Ifis shares and a cash portion of 1,414 euros for a total consideration of 298,49 million and a premium of 5,8% on Illimity's closing price prior to the offer. The transaction immediately attracted the interest of the market and shareholders, with Banca Sella, a leading shareholder of Illimity with 10% of the capital, which has favourably assessed "the interest of a solid and credible counterpart" and "the prospects of short and long-term industrial value" linked to the operation. While waiting to understand how it will end, the board of directors of the bank founded by Corrado Passera has launched a new organizational structure that includes two co-CEOs, Enrico Fagioli and Giovanni Lombardi, and the exit of co-founder Andrea Clamer and has appointed two financial advisors: Jefferies and Wepartners. Illimity “does not neglect any strategic option that can contribute to the objective of creating value for shareholders and all stakeholders of the bank", the institute announced a few days ago.
Banca Generali on Intermonte
The event ended on Friday 24th January period of adhesion to the Banca Generali offer, which he put on the table last September 16th 98 million euro to acquire the Milanese broker Intermonte. The institute now holds, directly and indirectly, approximately 95,932% of the capital social of Intermonte, can exercise the right to purchase (squeeze-out) on the residual shares not brought to adherence to the takeover bid, then proceeding with the Delisting of Intermonte shares from negotiations on Euronext Growth, an objective declared from the beginning by Banca Generali.
"We are very satisfied with the result which has generated strong feedback among all shareholders. Investors have understood the quality of theoperation that creates value for all stakeholders and this gives us great confidence for the new path we are about to take together", said theCEO of Banca Generali, Gian Maria Mossa, who added: “We aim not only at synergies in the perfect complementarity of our activities, but also at development of a service model which, counting on the professionalism and distinctiveness of their respective skills, increasingly establishes itself as a point of reference in solutions at the service of Italian businesses, entrepreneurs and families”. “In the coming months we will present the guidelines of the new plan in which their contribution will be an important pillar of our ambitions for the future”, concluded the manager.
The Risikino
The merger between the two companies reached its milestone last November. DoValue and Gardant, while exclusive negotiations continue between the MCC bank, Mediocredito Centrale, and Banca del Fucino for the purchase of 85,3% of the Savings Bank of Orvieto and its approximately 40 branches between Umbria and Lazio. Last November 30th the merger between Banca Agricola Popolare di Ragusa (Bapr) and Banca Popolare Sant'Angelo (Bpsa) became effective, giving birth to the first Sicilian banking hub with the new name of Popular Agricultural Bank of Sicily (Baps).
(Last update: 9.12 pm on 25 January).
