Who will be the new Governor of Bank of Italy when next November XNUMXst Ignazio Visco Will he leave Via Nazionale forever? The dance for the succession started a minute after the end of Visco's final considerations in the late morning of 31 May. And it will continue until September-October when the white smoke arrives for the appointment of the new Governor. In reality, contrary to what some newspapers write, there is no derby going on, because there is only one real candidate to succeed Visco and he is Fabio Panetta, Roman, 64 years old on August 2020st, former General Manager of the Bank of Italy and since January XNUMXst XNUMX member of the Executive Committee of the European Central Bank, the ECB, where he is appreciated for his technical competence but also for his determination.
Fabio Panetta, already a loyalist of Fazio and today a dove in the ECB
Already loyal to the controversial former Governor Antonio Fazio but also on excellent terms with its successor in Via Nazionale, Mario Draghi, Panetta has not hesitated in recent months to raise his voice on the board of the ECB to curb the fury of the Bundesbank and of the Governors of Northern European countries – the owls of the Central Bank – who would like even stronger monetary tightening to stop inflation but at the risk of causing a recession. In full harmony with the pragmatic line supported by Visco, Panetta leads the doves of the ECB and calls for balance: yes, but not a blind rate hike, but on the basis of the real trend of inflation and the European economy. Undisputed technical competence and political flair are the weapons of Panetta's success, first national and then European, and it is for this reason that he is in pole position for the succession to Visco.
The process for the appointment of the new Governor, who will last in office for 6 years possibly renewable only once, is long and will begin immediately after the summer holidays. First will be the Superior Council of the Bank of Italy to express a non-binding opinion on the choice of number one in Via Nazionale, then it will be up to the cabinet, having heard the Minister of the Economy and the Superior Council of the Bank, put forward a proposal which it will be up to the President of the Republic to decide to implement by decree. In essence, the appointment will come out of the confrontation between the premier Giorgia Meloni and the Head of State Sergio Mattarella but the opinion of the Minister of Economy Giancarlo Giorgetti and the Superior Council of via Nazionale will not be irrelevant, especially on this occasion. And we'll see why later.
ECB, if Panetta were to leave, it is not automatic that his seat will pass to an Italian
Paradoxically, Panetta's international prestige and recognized technical competence risk becoming a handicap for him. Because the leading position that Panetta occupies today at the top of the ECB is not interchangeable and it is by no means certain that, in the event of his resignation, he will still belong to an Italian. Stripping a key position at the top of the ECB for our country, weighed down by the high public debt, would be a gamble. Fans of Panetta argue that losing the Italian seat on the board of the ECB is only a theoretical danger because the practice of the European Councils is not to unilaterally alter the balance at the top of the institutions and in this case of the ECB. It may be that things go like this and that the candidate in pectore to represent Italy in that case on the board of the ECB, i.e. Peter Cipollone, current Deputy Director of the Bank of Italy and former economic super-adviser to the premier Giuseppe Conte a Palazzo Chigi, I have to pack my bags for Frankfurt after the summer. The perplexities that Giorgia Meloni arouses in Europe and her misalignment with France and Germany do not allow however, in the current state of things, to assume that, in the event of Panetta's resignation, his successor on the board of the ECB will automatically be a Italian.
Bank of Italy: if Meloni were to appoint a friendly Governor, the opposition would denounce the regime
But there is another aspect, political and institutional at the same time, which invests Panetta's candidacy to lead the Bank of Italy and which has so far remained under wraps, but which could take on a much different value when the procedure for the appointment of the new Governor will come alive. In Via Nazionale, even the walls know that Panetta, from an early age, has always had right-wing sympathies and the proven proof is in the fact that Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni wanted him as her Minister of the Economy, a post that Panetta declined to remain in the ECB in view of the succession in the Bank of Italy. But if Panetta's political profile is not exactly independent and is close to that of the right-centre government, it is clear that there is a problem of political expediency and checks and balances that can hardly be ignored at all institutional levels. After the conquest of Rai and a large part of the public groups and after the intolerance shown towards supervisory bodies such as the Court of Auditors, will the Meloni Government also get its hands on the Bank of Italy, blurring its traditional independence with the appointment of a friendly Governor? If it happened, despite Panetta being an indisputable civil servant, it would be child's play for the opposition to denounce the regime climate established by the Meloni government, making more than one institution turn up their noses.
Bank of Italy: the alternatives to the Panetta candidacy
If these perplexities of an international nature but also of an internal political-institutional nature surrounding Panetta's candidacy were to grow, are there any credible alternatives? In that case it would depend on what the Government wants to do: choose the future Governor within the Bank of Italy as per tradition (with the only recent exception of Mario Draghi) or call a foreign Pope? In the first case, the only authoritative alternative to Panetta is that of the current Director General of the Bank of Italy, Luigi Federico Signorini, Florentine, 67 years old, former assistant to Mario Draghi at the University of Florence, an economist appreciated both on and off Via Nazionale but a shy and reluctant man in the limelight and political acquaintances. In the second case, that of an external candidate but with solid precedents in the Bank of Italy, the name that was circulating until a few weeks ago was that of Daniel Franco, former General Manager of Via Nazionale before becoming Minister of Economy in the Draghi Government. Now, however, Franco is in pole position to become President of the The , the European Investment Bank.
So who will be the future Governor of the Bank of Italy? To date, Fabio Panetta remains the most popular candidate but the games are not over yet and politics is always a loose cannon on public appointments.
Beautiful interview