The Economic Review created by Banco di Napoli in collaboration with Srm dedicates the first issue of 2012 to the theme of tourism, considered a real resource for the country, capable of guaranteeing sustainable development of the territory and with an "economic" and "social" impact on site.
In particular, together with authoritative economists and sector operators, we discuss how territories can act in order not to lose the numerous advantages associated with it, given that the forecasts on the possible evolution of tourist flows show that the society of tomorrow will be more touristic than ever : the 983 million worldwide tourist arrivals in 2011 (+4,6% compared to 2010) will grow by an average of 43 million per year until 2030.
There is therefore the need to put the spotlight on tourism by concentrating on possible improvements in the "tourist competitiveness" of the territories, i.e. on the set of products and the differentiated supply themes, on the basic dynamics of tourism, on the aspect of international attractiveness of the Italian regions, on governance processes and policies, on the quality of services, on the new social frontiers, on the systemic value and multiplicative capacity of tourism, on the role of management and on infrastructural aspects.
All elements that determine the level of truistic attractiveness of an area, and consequently also the level of wealth generated, measured quantitatively in terms of GDP (direct, indirect and induced).
By now the economic importance of tourism is clear, in fact in 2011 the Travel&Tourism sector recorded the following data worldwide:
• Direct contribution of $1.972,8 billion, equal to 2,8% of GDP;
• Total contribution of $6.346,1 billion, equal to 9,1% of GDP;
• Direct employment 98.031.500 jobs, equal to 3,3% of total world employment;
• Total employment 254.941.000 jobs, equal to 8,7% of total world employment;
• Invested capital of $743 billion, equal to 4,9% of the total;
• International tourism receipts $1.030 billion, up 3,9% on 2010, with an average tourism expenditure of $1.050 per arrival.
In the international tourist context, Italy is well positioned, with a significant impact on GDP equal to 5,4%, not far from Spain (6,4) and France (6,2), among its main competitors. The data of the first tourism satellite account also shows an added value of 82,8 billion. euros, equal to 6% of the total added value of the economy; incidence very close, for example, to a significant sector of the national economy, that of construction.
Italy is among the top ten countries for foreign tourist demand: it ranks fifth in the ranking, with 46,1 million tourists, after the countries with which it is in direct competition, namely France (which is at the first place) and Spain (fourth place).
This position is also confirmed for international tourist revenues which amount to $43 billion.
with reference to the Italian tourist accommodation offer, in 2011 there were almost 154 units for 4,7 million bed places. 47,5% of national bed places (2,2 million) are attributable to hotel accommodation. Even if the accommodation offer is considered, Italy remains well positioned: in fact, it has the widest hotel offer at European level in terms of beds (2.251.217) and is in third place for the number of hotels ( 33.890).
The richness and variety of tourist sites allow Italy to position itself, in 2011, in 1st place in the world ranking of the "Tourism Infrastructure" Index. Among the positive elements there is also the wealth of Unesco sites, the recognition of international fairs and exhibitions, the rich creative industry, the country's health and hygiene.
In reality, if there are several strengths, there are, however, weaknesses that have worsened with the economic crisis:
• Italy slips to 27th place in the world rankings and 20th place in the European rankings according to the overall Travel & Tourism competitiveness index.
• The average size of Italian hotels (beds for hotel establishments), although slightly increasing (66,4 in 2011 against 66,3 in 2010), is lower than that of the other main Mediterranean competitors.
• The net utilization rate of hotels is not always satisfactory due to strong seasonality. It recovers in the months of July and August, without being able to reach some of its competitors (eg Spain).
• Furthermore, due to the economic crisis, in Italy – as in other European countries – there was a contraction in domestic tourist demand in 2011: number of trips -16,5% and number of overnight stays -15,1%. According to Federalberghi data, the first 8 months of 2012 (compared to the same period of 2011) lead to a 2,6% loss of presences, with Italians at -5,6% and foreigners at + 1,2%.
The dynamics of tourism become even more interesting to analyse, when they fall on the South; an area full of potential linked to the vastness of the thematic offer and full of history, places and experience but still little requested and explored and with a new "image" to be created and proposed.
In particular, in the European context, the South also plays its part with a robust accommodation offer:
• with 1,2 million bed places, the South holds 2011% of the total national bed places in 26 and is positioned, in the European context, above the Netherlands, Greece and Austria;
• There are 6.970 hotels, equal to 21% of Italy and they represent 27% of southern accommodation facilities, a higher percentage than the national figure (22% in Italy);
• There are 275.900 employees in the hotel and restaurant sector (4% in Italy), equal to 22% of employed people in the south;
• The direct tourist added value is about 17,4 billion € (about 21% of Italy), equal to 5,4% of the total southern added value.
On the other hand, considering the aspects relating to demand, the analysis reveals that there is still a lot to do, particularly in terms of international tourist attractiveness and the problem of seasonality, elements which lead to a low utilization rate as a final result of hotel facilities in the southern regions compared to the national figure. Specifically in the South:
• tourist arrivals were over 18 million in 2011 (18% of Italy), +3,5% compared to 2010. Southern tourist arrivals are lower than the dynamics of the rest of the country, but still significant in the European context.
• Tourist presences exceeded 77 million in 2011 (20% of Italy), +3% compared to 2010.
• Inbound tourism (foreigners) is characterized by the lower weight of tourist arrivals compared to the national average. In 2011 almost 5,5 million, equal to 30% of total arrivals (in Italy it is 46%) but up by 11% (in Italy +9%).
• Foreign tourist spending amounted to 3.875 million euros in 2011 (about 13% of Italy) up by +6% compared to 2010. The weight of the foreign spending component on total tourist spending (€21,4 billion ) is equal to 17,8%.
• Total tourist spending in Italy is 79,7 billion euros, of which 63,2% is domestic (50,4 billion) and 36,8% is foreign (29,3 billion).
• Furthermore, southern foreign tourists spend an average of 70,3 euros per day against 92,2 euros per day for foreign tourists in Italy (in both cases the average foreign tourist expenditure is higher than the average domestic expenditure). Therefore in the South there are fewer foreigners and those present spend less.
In the South, therefore, the need to focus more on development opportunities associated with the tourism industry in the broad sense appears evident, not limiting oneself to the few tourist resorts where monothematic tourism prevails (seaside) and overcoming infrastructural gaps that limit the ability to generate tourist flows and serve them with the necessary quality.
The Multiplier of the Tourist VA
Tourism represents one of the driving sectors of the economy in the South and in Italy and there is an awareness that it is a transversal "sector" capable of directly and indirectly activating wealth in the area.
The direct incidence of the tourism sector in the South on the total is lower than the national average (5,4% the figure in the South compared to 6% of the Italian average value). The added value of tourism in the South represents 21,1% of the national added value of tourism (82.833 million €).
As evidence of the wealth activator role that Tourism plays for the economy as a whole, SRM has calculated the estimates of the impact on tourism GDP for each additional presence, updating them to the recent data available from the First Tourism Satellite Account for Italy. In the South it is estimated that for each additional presence (be it a new arrival or an extension of presence) 70,8 euros of Added Value are generated, a value which however is lower than the Italian average (103,4 €).
Therefore, in the South, the role, weight and "economic value" of tourism have clear margins for growth. From the analysis of the sensitivity of the tourist added value to the variation of tourist presences, it is in fact estimated that a 20% increase in tourist presences in the South in the medium term could generate a growth in the tourist added value of around 3,5 billion euro, bringing the total added value of tourism at about 21 billion.
It is also possible to act to strengthen the multiplier effect of tourism in the South by activating those strategic actions which increase its impact value on the territory.
An expansion and diversification of the tourist offer that favors the strengthening of international tourist flows, the processes of seasonal adjustment, the activation of supply chain synergies with the sectors of Culture and Agro-industry goes in this direction. In this way the effects can only be positive.
In fact, it is estimated that the economic impact of a single additional presence in regions where the synergy between tourism and culture is greater, grows on average from €103,4 to €105,4 and in those regions where the synergy with the agro-industrial chain would reach a good 119,6€.
Therefore it is conceivable that, with the development of these synergies (culture and food and wine), the multiplier of the added value of tourism in the South would still have ample margins of development, in the medium term (between 25 and 30 euros of added value more per presence additional).
