According to Moody's, thanks to the effects of the pandemic, the quality of bank loans is destined to deteriorate significantly in the next two years. But the warning falls on deaf ears on the day of the great agreement on the Recovery Fund that gave wings to Italian banks (+4% the sector index). At the top of the performances in Piazza Affari there is Unicredit (+6,04%) who leads a platoon to which they belong Bpm bank (+ 5,6%) and Understanding St. Paul (+4%). But once again, to use an image of the two-wheeled world, it's time to set the pace Ps (+8,7%), followed today by Bper (+7,6%), eager to recover lost ground.
All while waiting for the advice of Ubi (+3%) is expressed on new enhanced offer from Intesa. It is not excluded that the bank's top management still squares around Victor Massiah, who seems determined to defend the institution's independence. But the ranks of adhesions to the Ops promoted by Carlo Messina are multiplying, very generous according to Bank of America, capable of "surprising the market" according to Ubs.
The tam tam of the market gives for certain the adhesion of other large international investors, but also that of domestic shareholders of the caliber of Foundation of the CRC of Cuneo, which holds a 5,9% stake, of Bnl, 3,95% strong, and del Brescia shareholders' union (at 7,67%) which add up to Cattolica Insurance (1%). According to Fidentiis, the relaunch will allow Intesa Sanpaolo to settle "above 67% of Ubi's capital, making consolidation easier and the achievement of synergies more feasible".
Operators, however, are looking beyond, in the belief that Intesa's expansion cannot fail to provoke a strong reaction from the rest of the system. Even because the rise of the Btp after the agreement on the Recovery Fund is strengthening the position of the main institutions, ready to kick off a new wave of M&A, necessary to withstand the competition from the super-Entente.
The most popular hypothesis concerns Unicredit, despite the CEO Jean Pierre Mustier you continue to deny the hypothesis of both domestic and international mergers. But Mustier himself, who raised the question of Intesa's overwhelming power over the antitrust, is aware of the importance of acting as a counterweight to the dominance of the "system bank", the mission that Intesa has given itself.
To the point that only the intervention of the ECB supervision, determined to counter fights of the bell tower, would have blown up an approach between Ubi and Unicredit in an anti-Entente function. Hence the weight that the market has attributed to the news of meetings between the top management of Unicredit and those of Banca Bpm, in a certain sense the ideal partner for various characteristics: widespread shareholding, geographical distribution and type of business.
Just summer talk, one could object, recalling the many failed risk attempts in the past. But this time it might be different. Andrea Enria, head of European Supervision, has repeatedly urged banks to have "more courage", anticipating the willingness of regulators to favor domestic integrations pending a subsequent wave cross borders in which Intesa Sanpaolo itself seems ready to participate, starting to outgrow the domestic arena.
