For a few days in the bank there has been talk of nothing else and that is the apocalyptic scenario designed by the Oliver Wyman, a leading company in management consultancy, which has just released a report with an already eloquent title: "Italian banks on an inclined plane".
Why tilted? Because everything right now seems to be conspiring against the banks: negative rates that choke the interest margin and sink profitability; regulatory uncertainty and complexity which imposes ever higher capital requirements; the competition of Fintech and internet giants in the offer of banking and financial services with high added value.
Result: either they quickly change their business model by focusing on digital innovation and drastic cost reduction o many of the Italian banks risk leaving the scene. The numbers are merciless: according to Oliver Wyman, to maintain the current return on capital, Italian banks will have to cut 70 employees and 7 branches over the next five years, which correspond to a reduction in the costs of 5 billion euros.
If then the Italian banks wanted "achieve a level of return on capital in line with other European banks (around 8%), the cost base should be reduced by a further 5 billion euros“. A total of 10 billion in cuts to put us on par with Europe and an urgent paradigm shift to counter the offensive by neo-banks and European competitors.
In other words: either Italian banks evolve rapidly towards credit 2.0 or no one will save them from the abyss.
"It's time to say enough to catastrophism, especially because certain catastrophism does not seem disinterested", comments the general secretary of First Cisl Riccardo Colombani. “Relaunching the analyzes of international consultancy firms which recommend, or perhaps it would be better to say hope, the cut of 70 bank loans in the coming years means fueling a climate of fear among workers and negatively influencing stock prices. A climate that is certainly not needed in a delicate moment like this. We take note of Abi's distancing: now, however, words must be followed by deeds".
According to a study carried out by First Cisl, “there is no direct correlation between the diffusion of new technologies and the decline in employees and branches. The only objective of the banks is the reduction of costs, but in this way profitability falls and the territories are impoverished”.
