“Monetary policy has never been so accommodating”, reads a report by Goldman Sachs released as a comment on the choices of the Fed, the Bank of Japan and the ECB. Thanks to this joint effort, the financial markets have regained their good mood. Including China, despite the alarm raised by the governor of the central bank, Zhou Xiaochuan, about excessive corporate debt, equal to 160% of GDP, a percentage that rises to 230% if public debt is also considered.
But the alarm did not prevent a robust rise in both Shanghai and Shenzhen, both up by 2%. Hong Kong was also positive (+0,3%). Tokyo is closed for the spring solstice holiday. The other Asian lists are weak, held back by the drop in oil: Brent trades at 41 dollars.
Despite the recovery of Wall Street's confidence, which has been on positive ground since the beginning of the year, a cautious opening is looming on the European markets: futures signal a slight decline in London, Paris and Frankfurt. Piazza Affari instead restarts after a negative week (-1,9%) due to the pressure on bank stocks. Since the beginning of the year, the loss is 13,1%. In this context, the markets are preparing to slow down activity in view of the Easter holidays: American and European lists will stop on Friday.
THE AGENDA: APPLE, PETROBRAS, CONSUMER CONFIDENCE
The most eagerly awaited event of the day on Wall Street is the unveiling of the latest small-screen, cut-price iPhone. Apple is thus trying to counter the declining trend in sales: analysts predict that in 2016, for the first time in ten years, fewer iPhones will be bought. Analysts are also looking closely at the accounts of Nike, queen of the market in 2015.
Spotlight in Brazil on the assembly of Petrobras, the Brazilian giant at the center of the scandal that has put the Roussef presidency in crisis.
Read the macro calendar of the week. In the US, the most important appointment concerns the definitive fourth quarter GDP data to be released on Friday with closed exchanges. Speeches by James Bullard, president of the Saint Louis Fed and Charles Evans of the Chicago Fed are scheduled. Attention is focused on two political appointments: Obama's visit to Cuba and the progress of the primaries in view of the party conventions. The data on consumer confidence in the Eurozone is worth noting. The numbers on industrial production and retail sales are arriving this week. The economic bulletin of the ECB will be distributed on Thursday.
This morning Piazza Affari will have to judge the evolution of some financial items that are changing the balance of power in corporate Italy: Vincent Bolloré's imprint on Telecom, but also on Generali and possible agreements with Mediaset. No less important are the troubled banking weddings between Bpm and Banco Popolare, the decisive showdown to give speed to the recovery of the banking system.
TELECOM, MANY NEWS AFTER THE PATUANO-CATTANEO RELAY
Eyes on Telecom Italia this morning. Marco Patuano announced on Friday evening that he will resign as CEO this week. This confirms the rumors about the dissatisfaction of Vivendi, now with a strong 24,9% stake, with the results and the strategic plan presented in London no later than a month ago. Today Flavio Cattaneo, current CEO of Italo, already present on the former incumbent's board of directors, could take on the role. Beyond the relay at the top, the market expects numerous innovations:
1) The turning point is probable Tim Brazil. Patuano was determined not to sell, Vivendi intends to concentrate efforts on southern Europe. The extremely serious crisis on the Carioca market contributed to weakening the CEO's position, the first cause of the negative impairment test (-460 million) which emerged from the accounts just approved.
2) Change of course, probable, even in the game Inwit. Patuano was inclined to favor the F2i-Cellnex offer for a stake in the tower company. The turnaround in the Telecom house marks a point in favor for the proposal of Ei Towers, the subsidiary of Mediaset.
3) The operation, in fact, is part of Vivendi's pressure to acquire a share, if not all Mediaset Premium in exchange for shares in the media company and a plan for subsequent entry into the Alfa Romeo, which could also involve Telecom itself at this point.
4) Finally, the consequences on Metroweb. Some are betting on the transfer of the CDP subsidiary to Telecom, in exchange for shares. Naturally with the blessing of Prime Minister Matteo Renzi.
BANKS, MORE CAPITAL AND GOVERNANCE FOR WEDDINGS
Even more electric the eve of the possible wedding between Banca Popolare di Milano and Banco Popolare. On Saturday in Lodi, the shareholders' meeting, 7.200 present in the various connected offices, approved the 99,70 financial statements of the bank headed by Pier Francesco Saviotti with a Bulgarian percentage (2015%). But attention was already turned to tomorrow's board of directors, when, simultaneously with the similar meeting of Bpm, a definitive answer will have to be given to the requests of the European Supervisory Authority.
To give the green light to the merger from which the third Italian banking center should be born, Frankfurt has asked for precise capital and governance commitments, mandatory for an institution that will have the characteristics of a systemic bank. No, therefore, to an intermediate pre-marriage phase of very long duration to preserve the privileges of the syndicate of Piazza Meda, but also a clear rejection of a diluted absorption of Banco's non-performing loans over time.
Thanks also to the intervention of Minister Pier Carlo Padoan, the thread of the negotiation has not broken. During the meeting, Saviotti for the first time opened up the prospect of a capital increase of around one billion, which is opposed by the big shareholders. We will also proceed with the sale of various assets, including the stake in Anima. Meanwhile, Carlo Bonomi has declined the invitation of the union in Piazza Meda to develop a plan B to be triggered in the event of a flop of the wedding.
The tensions on the merger contributed to the decline in the credit sector (-3,6% last week), in vertical decline since the day of the decisions on the ECB's rates (-6% the Eurostoxx). The phenomenon was particularly acute on the Italian market: Banco Popolare (-14,3%) was the worst European stock of the week. The other banks are also very bad: Banca Pop. Milan -8,9%, Intesa -8,7%, Unicredit -8,6%, Banca Pop Emilia -7,8% and Mediobanca -7,3%.
S&P GIVES CHARGE TO FIAT CHRYSLER
Among the most positive voices of the week the relaunch of the automotive sector, favored by the recovery of the market also thanks to the push of the central banks. Fiat Chrysler (+5,98%) achieved one of the most interesting performances. But this morning the title could benefit from the revision of FCA's long-term rating by the S&P 500 from BB- to BB decided after the definite release of Chrysler's liquidity, hitherto frozen in full with US government credits.
THE ITALIAN AGENDA: ENEL, MEDIASET, POSTE. TOD'S OUT OF THE BASKET
Pre-paqual corporate activity is intense. Tomorrow's Enel board of directors will give the operational go-ahead for the plan for the cabling of the territory coinciding with the installation of the new control units. The project, an investment of two billion, provides for intervention in 250 cities over the next 18 months in agreement with Vodafone and Wind. Today the board of directors on the accounts of Enel Green Power is planning.
Tomorrow appointment with the accounts also Mediaset and Poste Italiane called to approve the first dividend after the listing: a payout ratio of 80% is expected. In the meantime, Tod's stock (-9,8%) will leave the Ftse Mib basket today (-9,37%), among the worst of last week. On the other hand, Campari (+5,37%) leads the classification ahead of Finmeccanica (+XNUMX%), which will change its name to Leonardo.
Today, the payment of the coupon of Stm (0,1 dollars; fourth tranche) and BB Biotech (14,5 Swiss francs) is scheduled. Finally, also today, the amount of the offer of Ctz and Btpi scheduled for next Thursday 23, at the opening of the month-end auctions, will be communicated.
