At the time, in the early XNUMXs, the Kansas City Federal Reserve chose Jackson Hole, a very fishy trout reserve in Wyoming, for its late summer meeting, to convince the then president Paul Volcker, a great fishing enthusiast, to participate. Since then the governors of the central banks, even the less skilled with baits and reels, have elected the Cernobbio of America, populated by bears and deer, as the capital of the late summer economy.
Tradition will be respected again this year: the markets await with growing apprehension the speech that Janet Yellen will deliver at the meeting on Friday 26th. Stanley Fischer, number two of the Bank (and leader of the "hawks"), meanwhile underlined yesterday evening in Aspen that the US economy is close to achieving its objectives in terms of inflation and full employment and should accelerate in the last part of the year.
KURODA (BOJ) PUSHES TOKYO. CHANGE OF THE GUARD AT THE BANK OF INDIA
In the meantime, the markets are experiencing a climate of expectation. Tokyo (+0,2%) opens the week with a timid rise linked to the rebound of the dollar against the yen (exchange rate fixed at 100,70). Haruhiko Kuroda, the governor of the Bank of Japan, spoke of the possibility of further lowering interest rates as early as September. Instead, Hong Kong (-0,5%) and the Chinese Stock Exchanges were weak.
Changing of the guard at the Central Bank of India. Raghuram Rajan, former director of the Monetary Fund, one of the great protagonists of the Indian recovery, has left the scene. But Prime Minister Modi has made a choice based on continuity by promoting the current number two Urjit Patel, a close collaborator of Raghuram.
PFIZER BUYS MEDIVATION FOR $14 BILLION
Oil prices also slowed this morning: Brent at 50,22 dollars (-1,3%), Wti at 48,01 (-1,1%). Flat calm also on Wall Street awaiting indications on rates. In the past week the Dow Jones and Nasdaq fell by 0,1%. S&P 500 -0,01%. Pfizer's big coup over the weekend: the US giant secured control of the biotech company Medivation for 14 billion dollars.
BUSINESS PLACE -4% LAST WEEK. FITCH SAVE PORTUGAL
The opening of the European markets was much more tense, after the downpour of sales on the banking sector (Stoxx sector index -2,8%) on Friday. Milan under observation in particular: the Ftse Mib index lost 4% in five sessions, against -1,7% of the Stoxx600, the overall index of the European markets. Since the beginning of the year, the Milan Stock Exchange is the worst in the world with a drop of 23,8%.
Government bonds are also under pressure. At the end of the week, the spread between the yield of the ten-year BTP (1,13%) and the Spanish Bono (0,94%) widened, to the highest since 2015 despite the difficulties in setting up a new government in Madrid. But on Friday evening the Portuguese debt crisis returned. The Fitch rating agency has not downgraded Lisbon's rating from the current Bbb low, with a stable outlook, as feared. A rejection would have led to the exclusion of Portugal from the ECB's purchases, triggering a Qe crisis with an unpredictable outcome for the so-called peripherals.
THE AGENDA: VENTOTENE, US GDP AND PRADA ACCOUNTS
It's not just Jackson Hole. The week opens today with the trilateral Renzi-Merkel-Hollande scheduled in Ventotene on the Garibaldi helicopter carrier, with a press conference scheduled for the afternoon. Matteo Renzi hopes to convince the partners to give the green light to an extraordinary Juncker plan for culture, investments outside the constraints of the pact.
Meanwhile, the maneuver that the government will have to present in September is essentially ready in its broad lines. The basic idea is based on the need to free up as many resources as possible to boost the recovery. The reduction of IRES to 24 per cent is therefore confirmed. The super depreciation of 140 per cent for investors and the tax relief of productivity bonuses will be extended.
On the macro front, the PMI manufacturing and services indices (preliminary) for August will be highlighted in Europe tomorrow. The German Ifo is on the agenda for Thursday 25 August. The estimate on the US GDP for the second quarter is also scheduled: the experts expect a downward revision of the GDP to 1,1% (from +1,2%). The data on the health of the US home market is also important.
On the corporate side, the only important appointment scheduled is the Prada quarterly, out on Friday the 26th.
UNICREDIT AND GENERALI FIGHT TO REMAIN IN THE EUROSTOXX 50
In the foreground in Piazza Affari the recovery attempt of the financial sector after the rain of weekend sales. The crisis of the Italian banks has also aroused the worried attention of the New York Times. The balance sheets of Italian banks are weighed down by 190 billion in non-performing loans, equal to 17% of total outstanding loans, against 3-5% in France and Germany, a handicap aggravated by the slowdown in GDP in the second quarter, nailed to zero growth.
The risk, at this point, is that there will be a sort of mass relegation during the review of the European baskets. The new composition of the Eurostoxx 31 index will be announced on 50 August, which will then become effective from 16 September: in those two weeks, the funds that replicate the EuroStoxx 50 will change their portfolios accordingly. Risking relegation, after the latest stock market downturns, are Unicredit (-7% on Friday) and Generali (-3,4%). Monte Paschi, which has dropped to a capitalization of just over 600 million, should be excluded from the Eurostoxx 600 index.
MEDIASET ON THE ATTACK, VIVENDI'S RESPONSE ON THURSDAY
Contrasting signals on the front of the dispute between Mediaset and Vivendi. The prospect of an agreement made the Alfa stock soar. The cold shower arrived punctually: the summons filed by Mediaset with the court of Milan against Vivendi with a request for 50 million for each month of delay in the execution of the contract, an act which "does not concern the serious overall damage that the termination of the contract not honored would result in no less than one and a half billion euros".
However, the investment houses remain convinced that an agreement between the two groups is inevitable. The turning point could come on Thursday 25, on the occasion of the Vivendi quarterly. Telecom Italia (-2,6% on Friday) has once again denied its involvement in the match.
GOOD LISTED FOOTBALL. LIVERPOOL IN THE SIGHT OF CHINA
After the positive start in the championship, it is probable that the listed companies (Juventus, Lazio and Rome) will be able to give an encore in Piazza Affari. Milan also did well, almost Chinese by now but the same does not apply to Inter registered in China. But the Dragon insists: after landing in Milanese football, the offer of the Chinese company Everbright and the PCP fund is ready for Liverpool, the ninth European club by revenues.
