There is a new and increasingly disruptive ferment within the Italian banking sector, as if this 2020 marked by the Coronavirus emergency was now unanimously seen and experienced as a turning point. Not only because of the unprecedented difficulties that the economy will have to face in the coming months and because of the challenges that individual banks will be called upon to overcome, but also because the awareness seems to have emerged in all the players involved that in order to survive and grow in the "most last 100 years” – as defined by the president of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen – Italian banks will be forced to change.
To give a decisive push to the tricolor banking risk it was undoubtedly the public offer launched by Intesa Sanpaolo on Ubi Banca, aimed for the former at creating a new "European champion", interpreted by the latter as a "non-agreed" operation and not very "convenient for the shareholders". Not to be forgotten is the plan that led to the entry of Leonardo Del Vecchio into Mediobanca (with the will of up to 20% of the capital) that more than a headache has created and continues to create for the CEO of Piazzetta Cuccia, Alberto Nagel.
However, there is also another bank which in the coming months will be at the center of initiatives and projects which could change the current structure of the national banking sector: let's talk about the Monte dei Paschi di Siena, now in the hands of the Mef which controls 68% of the shares, after the years of deep crisis that brought the Tuscan bank to the brink of collapse, avoided only thanks to an investment of 6,9 billion euros by the state.
THE FUTURE OF MPS
The lights on the future of MPS were rekindled in an interview with Bloomberg TV by the Minister of Economy, Roberto Gualtieri. “The Government will meet the 2021 deadline to exit the Monte dei Paschi shareholding” assured the MEF number one to his interviewer. “The first step of the process – he continued – was done with the de-risking operation carried out with Amco, an agreement supported by the EU Commission, and it is a very important step of the process which will be completed with the exit in accordance with the rules established on the occasion of the precautionary recapitalisation". The deadline is set at the end of next year, but the government technicians are already working on a Dpcm with which to indicate to the European Commission the methods for exiting. The Treasury, therefore, is already looking to the future.
According to Gualtieri, that of the bank of Rocca Salimbeni "will be a success story" of a banking crisis: "we will have a bank back on its feet" and "able to return (to private individuals, ed) probably in a consolidation operation“. And it is precisely this passage of the interview that most attracted the attention of the observers, because even if not pronounced directly by the minister, the word that everyone thought of while listening to him was only one: fusion.
The main suspect for a possible marriage with Mps is Banco Bpm, despite the denial issued at the beginning of July by the Veronese institute and reaffirmed by President Tononi: "No contact with Mps". A union, the one between the two institutions, which could lead to the creation of the third Italian banking pole.
"I cannot comment, we are working on the de-risking and completion of the transactions and there will be the finalization of the exit", replied Gualtieri when asked if Banco Bpm was the possible suitor bank, but the hypothesis seems to be increasingly accredited also because it would meet the favor of a part of the Democratic Party. Much more cautious instead the M5S, which does not seem to want to give up the idea of "a state bank". In a'interview with Corriere della Sera, the president of the commission of inquiry into banks and pentastellata deputy, Carla Ruocco, opened up to the possible nationalization of MPS. "There is maximum willingness to maintain a role of the State in the shareholding structure of MPS", he affirmed, however admitting that the question will have to be discussed with the allies of the Government, but above all in Europe, given that the operation would require a revision of the community rules.
In short, the future of Mps has yet to be written, but what is certain is that Siena, together with Bergamo and Brescia, will become one of the capitals of Italian banking risk in the coming months.
OPS INTESA-UBI
And speaking of Bergamo and Brescia, Intesa's Ops continues on Ubi. On the third day of trading, shares were contributed in acceptance of the offer equal to 0,54% of Ubi's share capital for a total of over 6,2 million shares.
The operation was expressed on 8 July president of Intesa Sanpaolo, Gian Maria Gros Pietro that in a letter sent to Corriere della Sera he declared: “The objective of the Offer launched by Intesa Sanpaolo is not the elimination of a competitor. We are addressing all UBI shareholders to create a major player in the credit market, capable of facing a challenge of European dimensions, with the professionalism, resources and strategies to grow and establish itself in various sectors and to support development of the economic and social fabric of the territories in which Ubi operates", Gros Pietro also denied that the operation has the objective of "precluding the emergence of a third competitor on the Italian market", given that Bper, following the purchase of the branches of Ubi, will have "more Ubi branches and a higher share of deposits and loans".
In the remote dialogue-clash between the two groups, the letter also arrived - again at Courier - of Letizia Moratti, president of Ubi Banca, in response to that of Gian Maria Gros Pietro, in which he defends the competitive need for a third pole. "It is inevitable - writes Moratti - that the mergers lead to a contraction of credit lines for those who are customers of both". And then: “For the purposes of competition on national markets, the distance between the first operator and the other market players is also noted. And in Italy the second operator is about half of Intesa”. And finally: "The bank aggregation operations carried out in Italy and in Europe in recent decades have always been the result of concerted actions".
