After the decisions of the US Treasury and pending the Recovery Fund European Union, the task of supporting the markets returns to the hands of the central banks, engaged in the arduous mission of freeing the world economy from the paralysis into which the epidemic has precipitated it. And so, already discounting the arrival of new support measures, the short week of the stock markets opens in a positive tone. But without too many illusions, judging by the new decline in prices Petroleum (Texan crude at 16 dollars, Brent crude down to 21,45 dollars a barrel) and by purchases on thegold (at $1.722 an ounce).
The first to move, already tonight, will be there Bank of Japan, which could announce the cancellation of the ceiling on already very robust interventions: in the last month the BoJ bought 18 billion ETFs alone.
Tomorrow will start the two days of the Federal Reserve, from which new expansionary moves are expected in line with the bazookas already activated in March. It is assumed that Jay Powell will keep rates at the lows, between 0 and 0,25%. The Fed could extend its purchases to mini-bonds, local bonds (4 trillion market) and expand the Central Bank's network to unrated high-yield securities, a move invoked by banks and oil companies overwhelmed by the collapse of crude oil.
Spotlights also on ECB, who on Thursday will not be able to limit himself to examining the first effects of the decision to extend the purchases of Qe to unrated securities as well, a move that allowed Standard & Poor's to confirm Italy's rating at BBB, keeping it two notches above the level " rubbish”, while confirming the negative outlook. But Lagarde could go further: while waiting for the European Union's Recovery Fund to take shape, the ECB could increase purchases, focusing on "fallen angels", i.e. securities that have become less secure.
Meanwhile, with the new def the Italian government set the deficit target on Friday at 10,4% of GDP in 2020 and sees the debt rise to 155,7% of gross domestic product.
Gradually the markets are preparing to enter the 2 phase partial removal of the emergency. But meanwhile they get to grips with macro data. Are provided the preliminary estimates on the growth of the US GDP and that of the Eurozone in the first quarter. There is great expectation in particular for the statistics on labor market of the entire euro area and of the three main economies (Germany, France and Italy). This too increases the interest of Madame Lagarde's press conference, especially after her gaffe in her debut. The confidence of European consumers should also be monitored. Attention then to the inflation of Germany, Italy and other economies of the bloc.
Short week but full of corporate events. Two key appointments. Generali for the first time in its history, it will hold the assembly in Turin under the guidance of the president Gabriele Galateri (who will lead the assembly from Turin), the CEO Philippe Donnet and the CFO Cristiano Borean.
The public exchange offer between Understanding e Ubi remains one of the most significant points of theIntesa Sanpaolo shareholders' meetingremotely of course. The CEO Carlo Messina has also recently confirmed that the Ops remains valid and that indeed the Coranavirus emergency strengthens its "strategic nature", in particular as regards cost synergies, the increase in the degree of credit coverage non-performing loans and the reduction of unlikely to pay loans. The number one of the system bank, in an interview with "Sole 24 Ore", has meanwhile launched an idea to increase the appeal of Italian government bonds, proposing a tax bonus to increase the appeal for the repatriation of capital invested in non-tricolor instruments.
Today Piaggio and Saes Getters detach the dividend. The Treasury auctions they resume tomorrow with the offer of Treasury bills for six billion (7 billion, against 7,15 maturing) and the reopening of 3,5 billion for three-month bonds. Tonight the data from the auction of the 29th on medium-long term bonds will be communicated.
A Wall Street the parade continues quarterly. During the week it's up to the greats of technology: A, Amazon, Apple Lossless Audio CODEC (ALAC),, Facebook e Microsoft.
