It all started with the victorious takeover bid launched by Intesa Sanpaolo on Ubi, but everything gathered momentum on the eve of August XNUMXth. The fibrillation of the Stock Exchange that has been animating for weeks bank stocks has a simple explanation: it is the risk, beauty. Macro variables certainly count on the performance of bank stocks, the events and expectations on the Recovery Fund, the decline in the Btp-Bund spread and other elements, but these days it is above all the speculative appeal to give the push. And the Bpm bank has been at the center of stock exchange movements since its CEO, Joseph Chestnut, had the courage to say what everyone saw but didn't say. It was the interview she gave on August 11 to Sun 24 Hours to cause a sensation, because it does not happen every day that a banker speaks and it is even more rare that he speaks clearly. “It's obvious – Castagna declared that day – that the merger of Ubi into Intesa Sanpaolo changes the competitive context for all Italian banks, including us".
A new era has begun with the Intesa-Ubi wedding. For everyone. Conviction reaffirmed by Castagna also in recent days. After all, the facts speak for themselves: making money in the bank has become a difficult profession since the low or even negative rates practiced by the ECB have significantly reduced the interest margin and since the harsh recession caused by Covid has put many companies in crisis, generating a new wave of NPLs that risk restricting loans beyond all limits which, on the basis of strict European rules, banks can grant to businesses and households. Here because bank mergers become an obligatory path. Not only in Italy: Intesa Sanpaolo had the merit of anticipating everyone and paving the way for domestic consolidation, but Spain too has moved with the wedding between Caixabank and Bankia, which created the first Spanish banking group; recurring rumors suggest the marriage between the two Swiss giants – UBS and Credit Suisse – while the rumors also invest French banks – where there is more and more talk of the possible marriage between Bnp Paribas and Société Générale – and German, among which the hypothesis of a merger between Deutsche Bank and Commerzbank.
But Piazza Affari obviously looks above all at Italian banks. On paper, more than one might be interested in getting married (from Mps to Unicredit, from Bper to the Valtellina banks) but in reality the spotlights are focused above all on Bpm bank, which is the most ready to embark on the path of consolidation. It's not just Castagna who says it: these are the numbers that tell of Banco Bpm's growing speculative appeal. The Bank of Piazzale Meda has not yet fully recovered the stock market losses at the beginning of 2020 (it is down by 17%) but, if it continues to run as in recent months, it will be able to do so within the year: last week it earned 5,26%, i.e. more than double the Ftse Mib (2,57%); in the last month 18,6%, in the last three months 27,63% and in the half year 37,11%. And the race, net of the profit-taking of a few days, does not seem over yet if analysts believe that from 1,66 euros the Banco Bpm share could rise to 1,700 euros for Morgan Stanley and even 1,900 for Equita Sim.
But in which direction will Banco Bpm go? Officially, the Castagna bank excludes that the choice has already been made or that negotiations are underway, even if it admits that it has started all-round talks. But the real options are fewer than it appears. A deal with Monte dei Paschi would be very difficult, not only because the shareholder Tesoro has not yet clarified how the Sienese bank should move when the privatization agreed with the EU kicks off next year, and which the grillini would like to postpone, however, but because the risk of litigation that Mps carries behind due to previous misadventures it is very high and would require a considerable public dowry to cultivate wedding plans. There would be Unicredit, but the CEO of Piazza Aulenti, Jean Pierre Mustier, has repeatedly ruled out extraordinary operations, even if it remains to be seen how the choice of the new president, expected for November, will affect the bank's future strategy. Then there is Bper, which, however, must first process the acquisition of 532 Ubi and 15 Intesa Sanpaolo branches taken over following the takeover bid. Currently, the intentions of are uncertain Creval and Banca Popolare di Sondrio (which must first turn into a spa).
More workable on paper it seems a deal between Banco Bpm and Crédit Agricole Italia, which is the Italian subsidiary of the French banking giant and which is already now the seventh banking group in our country after the acquisitions of Cariparma, Carispezia, Friuladria and Casse di Cesena, Rimini and San Miniato. Mediobanca Securities hypothesizes a reverse merger through which the Piazza Meda bank could incorporate the Italian assets of the French group which would become the reference shareholder with 38% of the capital. Regardless of the modalities, the marriage between Banco Bpm and Credit Agricole Italia is the project on which the Stock Exchange is betting the most and which would have an indisputable industrial logic, with modest overlaps between the two banks. If they are roses they will flourish.
